Top-up fee rebels put vote on a knife-edge

This week's Commons showdown on top-up fees is balanced on a knife edge, an Evening Standard survey of Labour MPs reveals today.

Despite a weekend of arm-twisting by whips and Cabinet ministers, enough rebels are standing firm for Tony Blair to be facing defeat.

The disclosure is a blow to the Prime Minister, who was today leading a final drive to win round waverers before tomorrow's vote.

The survey suggests about 80 MPs are likely to defy Mr Blair and vote against tuition fees of up to £3,000 a year, with another 10 abstaining. That would be enough to wipe out Labour's majority of 163, leaving the outcome depending on a handful of waverers.

Evening Standard spoke to 63 of the 155 Labour MPs who signed the original Commons motion criticising top-up fees, and found 32 were planning to vote against the Government. Education Secretary Charles Clarke was today moving to reassure potential switchers with a pledge that fees will not rise in real terms until 2009.

And he was setting out details of a wide-ranging review of the impact of tuition fees, to be carried out three years after the policy takes effect - probably in 2009. Ministers see the review as an step towards " trustproofing" the package, to reassure rebel MPs that fees will not be allowed to soar once the Commons has voted.

Evening Standard has learned that Mr Clarke will promise an investigation into two key areas of concern for Labour MPs - the impact of fees on middle-income families earning up to £30,000 a year, and the evidence that fees deter working-class students from taking up law, medicine and accountancy.

However, also included in the review will be an analysis of whether top-up fees are raising enough money to close the university funding gap, estimated at between £8 billion and £10 billion.

Critics believe the outcome is certain to be a recommendation that the upper limit for fees should be raised above £3,000, opening the door for a full-scale market in higher education, with the leading universities able to charge far more than their less prestigious counterparts.

The review is likely to be completed in 2010. Any increase in the maximum fee would be delayed until after the next election but one, allowing Labour to keep its promise that the £3,000 cap will stay in place throughout the lifetime of the next Parliament.

Labour MPs called to Downing Street for pep talks with Mr Blair have been told that the announcements today represent an important move to meet their concerns.

However, sources close to Mr Clarke pointed out that it had always been the intention to hold a review three years after the introduction of top-up fees. Under the Government's fees regime, universities would be allowed to charge up to £3,000 a year, but there would be no up-front charge, and graduates would pay back the debt once they were earning a living.

The review will also examine the charges set by different universities for different courses; how the extra money is being used; how bursaries and support for poorer students are working; the impact on applications for different subjects; and patterns in graduate employment.

Of the 63 MPs contacted yesterday in the Standard survey, 32 said they would vote against the top-up fees Bill tomorrow unless the Government made drastic changes - -which ministers have ruled out. A further four will abstain, nine will support the Government, 10 claimed they were undecided and seven would not reveal their intentions.

Ministers believe that while about 50 Labour MPs are implacably opposed to the proposals, a further 30 to 40 are persuadable in the final day before the vote. Rebel organisers expect one or two of their supporters to go over to the Government's side today or tomorrow, with ministers making the most of the defections to claim the revolt is losing its steam.

One rebel leader claimed 101 MPs were ready to vote against the Government tomorrow, with only a handful having dropped their opposition since the start of the year.

Over the weekend ministers including Gordon Brown made a series of telephone calls to plead with rebel MPs to fall back into line.

The Chancellor, some of whose allies are leading the rebellion, called variable top-up fees "a sensible, radical reform".