Threat in India is increasing

The vicious attacks in Mumbai have highlighted the threat from terrorism that India faces. And the manner of the attack ¡ª more akin to a sophisticated military operation ¡ª differs from previous bombings.

It is likely to have serious repercussions, not least among foreign companies based in India.

These are not the first serious attacks in Mumbai ¡ª two years ago more than 160 people were killed in seven bomb explosions on commuter trains. Mumbai and India have proved to be resilient to these attacks. But the number of terrorist incidents in India is increasing. So far this year Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmedabad and Jaipur have all suffered bomb attacks, thought to be the work of radical Muslims.

Past bombings were routinely blamed on Pakistan-based militants, often with the assumption of complicity from Pakistan¡¯s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence. These attacks were often linked to the disputed territory of Kashmir, India¡¯s only Muslim-majority state, where militant groups have targeted Indian troops since 1989, calling for independence, or accession to Pakistan.

It was also India¡¯s boast that it had not been attacked by members of its indigenous Muslim population. This has changed. Most of the recent attacks are thought to be connected to a banned group, the Students¡¯ Islamic Movement of India, which calls for India to be converted into an Islamic society.

SIMI is thought to have morphed into the ¡°Indian Mujahideen¡±, which claimed responsibility for the attacks in Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Delhi this year and is believed to have links to al Qaeda and Pakistan-based militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba.

The so-called ¡°Deccan Mujahideen¡± is likely to be linked to the Indian Mujahideen, and many questions will be asked about any foreign (ie Pakistani) connections. But the name is clearly intended to stress the Indian-ness of the group.
The Deccan is a plateau covering much of central and southern India. The interrogation of those captured may reveal whether that is meant to cover up foreign connections.

For India, the main task is to increase intelligence capacity. For now it appears almost entirely reactive to attacks. Politicians argue about whether anti-terror laws are strong enough, and often police round up the usual suspects after attacks. So far it has failed to stop attacks increasing.

¡ñ Dr Gareth Price is head of the Asia programme at Chatham House