There will be blood on the carpet

Electors seem to be settling into a resolve to return Labour to power but with a reduced majority, according to the face-to-face MORI poll carried out exclusively for the Evening Standard over the last few days. A total of 58 per cent of the 1,973 electors surveyed said they were "absolutely certain" to vote for one party on 5 May.

Of those, Labour had a share of 39 per cent, the Conservatives 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats 21 per cent and other parties 5 per cent. Just over half of Londoners said they were certain to vote and 14 per cent more said they would be voting Labour than Tory.

Labour had 43 per cent (compared with 47 per cent in 2001), the Tories 29 per cent (30 per cent) and the Lib-Dems 22 per cent (17 per cent).

This contrasts with an eight-point Tory lead in the rest of the South-East, where Labour has 30 per cent (32 per cent), the Conservatives 38 per cent (43 per cent) and Lib-Dems 24 per cent (21 per cent).

Assuming a national uniform swing across the country, Labour would be returned with a majority of about 110 seats - down from 167 in 2001.

They would lose about 30 seats, with the Liberal Democrats picking up only a few, mostly at the expense of the Conservatives.

But the survey shows there is still much to play for. One third of those who name a party say they may change their mind between now and polling day.

Four in 10 (41 per cent) of those choosing the Liberal Democrats say they may change their mind, while the equivalent figure for Labour is 31 per cent. A quarter of Conservative supporters have not definitely decided to vote for the party and admit there is a chance they may change their mind during the election campaign.

Certainty of voting is based on the following question: "How likely would you be to vote in an immediate general election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 means you would be absolutely certain not to vote?"

The voting intention figures of only those "absolutely certain" (58 per cent) give a four-point lead to Labour. If those people who answered either nine or 10 on the scale are added together (64 per cent), the gap widens to seven points.

However, the trust factor continues to plague the Prime Minister. Two thirds (65 per cent) disagree that the Government is open and honest about the scale of immigration into Britain - four times as many as those who believe them. Half of Labour's supporters are among the sceptics.

Exactly 28 per cent think that they would be financially better off under a Conservative government, while 36 per cent say they would be better off under a Labour government, including three in 10 managerial and professional (AB) families.

Only a third of those surveyed have bought Labour's claim that the Conservatives' agenda includes cutting public spending by as much as £35 billion.

It is clear that there is going to be blood on the carpet on the day following the election, one way or another. If the turnout stays low as many as 30 Labour MPs could be for the chop, yet the Tories would not come close to achieving their minimum target of 200 seats, up from 166 at the last election.

? MORI interviewed a national sample of 1,973 British adults aged 18+ face-to-face at home between 7 and 11 April 2005. Data is weighted to match the profile of the population. MORI abides by the rules of the British Polling Council. Copyright Mori/Evening Standard