The rivals battling for NY Mayor

Today is election day in New York and the race for City Hall is down to a run-off between Democrat Mark Green and Republican Michael Bloomberg. Although Green started out with a huge lead over his rival, Bloomberg has spent his way into contention. Polls published in the last few days of the campaign suggest the candidates are running neck-and-neck, with Green sagging badly as his front-runner status has been eroded.

Bloomberg, who founded the financial information company that bears his name, is estimated to have spent over $40 million (£27 million) so far. He is new to politics, with all the strengths and weaknesses this implies. His television adverts (of which there are many) describe him as "a leader, not a politician". Because he is not a cynical veteran of earlier campaigns, he often sounds na've. However, his business experience is real and has helped him project an image of competence. Crucially, he has been endorsed by outgoing mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

Green has decades of experience within the deep and dangerous waters of Democrat politics in New York City. He should win, given the heavy majority of Democrat voters in a city which only occasionally switches to the Republicans. For the past eight years Green has been the city's Public Advocate, a directlyelected role which has brought him into regular conflict with Giuliani. He is a liberal's liberal, who has sought to bolster his law-and-order credentials by embracing Bill Bratton, who served as Giuliani's most effective police commissioner. Bratton, it is widely believed, will become deputy mayor if Green wins.

Both Green and Bloomberg live in Manhattan's top-of-the-range Upper East Side. Neither could be seen as either populist or, for that matter, popular. The contrast with last year's leading candidates for mayor of London could barely be greater. Ken Livingstone and Steve Norris lived in mixed inner-city neighbourhoods rather than in Mayfair or Hampstead. Both are populists, widely liked beyond their own parties. Only in their political beliefs are there parallels between both sets of mayoral candidates: Green's old-fashioned liberalism is close to Livingstone's take on the world. Bloomberg and Norris would find little to disagree about. Bloomberg was a socially liberal Democrat until recently. He switched parties (not a big deal in American politics) to win the Republican nomination. There is no ideological gulf between him and Mark Green. Rather, they disagree about details. One of the most important differences between them concerns the future of the World Trade Center site.

Green favours the creation of a new state-city agency that would seek to keep the financial and business industries located in lower Manhattan. Bloomberg wants no new agency, preferring to use existing ones. The Republican candidate also wants to let the market (as opposed to an agency) decide what kinds of businesses move back into the financial district.

Commentators are discussing the possibility that Rudy Giuliani could lead whatever arrangements are put in place to rebuild New York. Giuliani himself is non-committal when approached. It seems more likely he will go on to a national role of some kind. Given recent intelligence failures within both the FBI and CIA, it is always possible one of these agencies will soon need a new chief. Before becoming mayor, Giuliani was a federal prosecutor and has many of the talents that will be needed within government service in the dangerous years ahead.

But today's election is all about New York. The banners on the lamp-posts, still aggressively proclaiming New York to be the "Capital of the World", contrast starkly with overheard conversations about "moving the children away from the risks". No one knows what horrors may yet lie ahead: there is a strong sense of foreboding along Broadway. The smell of the burning Trade Center lingers on throughout the dustcovered streets around Wall Street. The damage to the soul of New Yorkers is palpable.

We will find out tomorrow whether Mark Green has reestablished Democrat control at City Hall, or if Michael Bloomberg has held on for the Republicans. Either will face the problem of succeeding the heroic, immortalised Giuliani. New York now needs firm and confident leadership. The 108th mayor's job will not be easy.

Tony Travers is director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics