The great Polish exodus

Business chiefs in London are facing the threat of an exodus of valuable east European workers amid signs that significant numbers of Poles are starting to return home.

Employers say the falling value of the pound, a thriving economy in Poland and tightening economic conditions here are persuading some migrant workers to leave the capital.

The outward flow follows recent government figures showing a drop in new arrivals from Poland and the other new EU member nations, and raises the prospect that workers in some key sectors could become scarce.

Among the most vulnerable sectors are hospitality and catering - which rely heavily on overseas staff - the construction industry, and firms requiring office staff.

Consumers could also be hit as the numbers of Polish builders, painters and decorators - famed for their low fees and hard work - fall and reduce the supply of skilled traders in the capital.

Although the exodus is unlikely to produce immediate shortages, employers are concerned that a diminishing supply of eastern European workers could make it harder for the capital's economy to prosper.

Peter Bishop, deputy chief executive of the London Chambers of Commerce, said the recent surge in the value of the Polish zloty against the pound and strong growth in Poland's economy was causing the f low of migration to reverse.

"I think everyone agrees the tide has turned," he said. "Since the expansion of the EU in 2004 a lot of Poles have come and benefited greatly from the skills they have gained here, including learning English. But now they are starting to go back to jobs such as IT, graphic design and, of course, building. That doesn't mean that the flow has dried up completely, so there is no panic among our members."

However, Miles Quest, a spokesman for the British Hospitality Association, warned that restaurants, hotels, coffee bars and other catering businesses would all suffer if the number of east Europeans returning home accelerated.

"Around 80 per cent of workers in hospitality in London are from overseas and although the sector has always been very cosmopolitan, the eastern Europeans have been extremely valuable," he said.

No official figures exist on the numbers of Poles and others from the region who are returning home because Britain does not log the details of those departing the country.

But latest statistics show that in the last three months of last year, the numbers of east European migrants coming dropped dramatically.

There were 47,330 registering for work between October and December last year, compared with a total of 63,350 for the equivalent period a year earlier.

Figures for London showed a similar drop from 6,035 arrivals in the final quarter of 2006 to just under 5,000 12 months later.

Wojciech Pisarski, a spokesman for the Polish Embassy, said: "This trend has started and it is a fact that returns are very popular among Poles at the moment. A lot of cities in Poland started programmes to attract people back."

Among the key economic factors explaining the growing flow of workers back to Poland is the 20 per cent rise in the Polish zloty against the pound since the start of last year.

Wages in the Polish construction industry have also leaped by 25 per cent in the past year, while the unemployment rate in Warsaw is now only two per cent higher than the rate in London.