Terminal 5 about to get go-ahead

Aviation experts are convinced that the Government will approve a fifth terminal for Heathrow despite the terrorist attacks on America and a possible ban on night flights.

Industry insiders believe that the long-term need to increase capacity at an airport close to bursting point overrides any case based on the present slump in passenger numbers.

Opponents have seized on the collapse of confidence in air travel - British Airways is 25 per cent down on this time last year - to strengthen their argument that air traffic forecasts are unreliable.

The issue, however, has been further clouded as the Government must consider a ban on night flights to Heathrow. The move follows a European Court ruling in favour of antiaircraft noise protesters who oppose Terminal Five.

Most experts, however, remain unconvinced that either issue will make a difference to a ruling expected this week. Jonathan Wober, a transport analyst at Deutsche Bank, said: "Neither will have a particularly significant impact on Terminal Five. Numbers of passengers may be down in the aftermath of 11 September but the depressed traffic levels won't stay that way for six years.

"Traffic will return to the four or five per cent growth rates per annum, probably within a year or 18 months, just as it did after the Gulf War."

BA and other airlines argue that the £2.25 billion project has been needed for years. The airport currently has the capacity to handle 55,000 planes a year but deals with an estimated 60,000. There has been speculation that the present crisis in the industry could at least delay the decision. The Government is also under political pressure not to be seen to bury the ruling while war in Afghanistan continues to dominate the news.

David Learmount, the operations and safety editor of Flight International magazine, believes that the Government has no option but to accept that airport capacity in the South-East will run out in eight years' time.

The 600-page report from the 525-day inquiry into Terminal Five - the longest in planning history - has been at the Department of Transport since December. Mr Learmount said if it achieved anything, it was to "untangle the appalling access to Heathrow and to decide how surface transport to the airport should develop in the future".

He is convinced that even if the report went against the airport operator BAA, the Government would "ride rough-shod" over it because of Heathrow's importance to Britain.

The possible loss of night flights - which covers 16 flights every day landing at Heathrow between 4.30am and 6am - is dismissed by most as a red herring. BA's policy development spokesman Don Routledge said: "Without Terminal Five there would be increasing pressure for more night flights. The existing terminals are under huge pressure from 6am each day."

Night flights - in effect early morning arrivals mostly from the Far East - account for less than one per cent of the daily total of flights at Heathrow.

Mr Routledge said the " forwardlooking" design of Terminal Five - with more space for passengers and improved baggage-handling and check-in facilities - should be able to cope with any security changes after last month's attacks.

BAA has said that Terminal Five will create 275,000 jobs and secure Heathrow's position as Europe's leading airport.

In 1995 it submitted an estimate that the number of flight movements at Heathrow would reach 473,000 by 2013.

Hacan ClearSkies, the group which opposes the scheme, said that number was unrealistic as levels had already reached 460,000.

It is preparing a legal challenge if, as expected, the decision goes in BAA's favour.