Ten London MPs 'at greater risk of defeat' in AV system

Ten seats in London would be more likely to change hands under the alternative vote system, research reveals today.

Six would move from being classified as "marginal" to "ultra marginal", and four would change from being "fairly safe" to "marginal".

It would bring the total number of "ultra marginal" seats in the capital to 17, a report by the New Economics Foundation think tank found.

But the report's authors warned that although AV would deliver some improvements on the first-past-the-post system in terms of voter power, it would not get rid of the "main problems" of inequality and inefficiency.

In a referendum on May 5, voters will be asked whether to stick with first-past-the-post - where an X is placed next to one candidate - or switch to AV where candidates are ranked in order of preference and second preferences are taken into account if necessary until someone secures 50 per cent support.

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Tonight the Standard is hosting a debate on the issue, with Business Secretary Vince Cable and former mayor Ken Livingstone in favour of AV facing Tory former leader Michael Howard and former Olympic rower Martin Cross against. The New Economics Foundation analysed six general elections between 1983 and last year to look at how likely seats were to change hands. They were then ranked on a scale from "ultra safe" to "ultra marginal".

It found that three ministers' seats would move from "marginal" to "ultra marginal" under AV - Conservative Treasury economic secretary Justine Greening in Putney, Lib-Dem health minister Paul Burstow in Sutton and Cheam and his party colleague and equalities minister Lynne Featherstone in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Tory government aide Stephen Hammond's Wimbledon seat would also change category in the same way, as would Labour shadow work and pensions minister Karen Buck in Westminster North and Conservative Bob Blackman in Harrow East.

The four seats that would change from "fairly safe" to "marginal" are Labour shadow ministers Sadiq Khan in Tooting and Jim Fitzpatrick in Poplar and Limehouse, along with Conservatives Jo Johnson in Orpington and David Evennett in Bexleyheath and Crayford.

A separate study by academics found that 10 seats would be in different hands if AV had been used at the last election.