Support crumbles in key marginals

Labour's support has slumped in key marginal seats across Britain, according to a new opinion poll.

Backing for the party in 58 crucial constituencies has slumped by nine per cent since the last election, the ICM survey found.

The poll dramatically increased the pressure on Labour's election planning - but the figures gave little comfort to Iain Duncan Smith.

They showed that the Conservatives have made no inroads at all in the seats they desperately need to win to inflict serious damage on Labour's 161-seat majority in the House of Commons.

Since June 2001 their support has fallen one per cent to 38 per cent. Labour's fall from 38 per cent to 30 per cent is wholly accounted for by the resurgent Liberal Democrats, now on 28 per cent.

The poll, in The Guardian, suggests that the Tories will only capture around 20 of the key knife-edge constituencies the party has identified as its major targets.

This would put Tony Blair comfortably back in power, possibly with a third successive Commons majority of 100-plus seats. The

Tories could find themselves squeezed by the Lib-Dems, on a high after their byelection success this month in Brent East.

Prominent Conservatives with small majorities under threat from Charles Kennedy's party include shadow home secretary Oliver Letwin and party chairman Theresa May.

A separate survey today provided further evidence of voter alienation, with a big slump in satisfaction with ministers' performance. The YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph put support for Labour on 31 per cent, its lowest level since Neil Kinnock led the party in the Eighties.

More worrying for the Government, 74 per cent of voters said they were either "very unhappy" or "somewhat dissatisfied" with Labour. This was up from 63 per cent last year and 43 per cent in October 1999, the last time Labour held its party conference in Bournemouth.

When asked about possible reasons for not voting Labour, 71 per cent of people agreed that "there is a culture of deceit and spin at the heart of the Government".

The same percentage agreed that "Labour is failing to deliver on the major public services like the NHS and education" while 70 per cent felt that "Tony Blair has lost touch with ordinary working people".

The majority of those surveyed also felt taxes had gone up too much under Labour and that Mr Blair was wrong to lead Britain into war with Iraq. The survey made grim reading for Mr Blair ahead of his keynote speech tomorrow. He is set to combine a message that he is more willing to "listen" to his party's MPs and activists with a warning that he will not retreat an inch from planned changes to schools and hospitals.

He will also not retreat over Iraq - and has won a boost after big unions agreed not to force a vote on the war, which would almost certainly have resulted in an embarrassing defeat for the Government.