Shares may tumble if England lose

Share prices could slump if England lose to France in the World Cup semi-final on Sunday, say economists.

A study from Leeds University tracked stock performance during the football World Cup, and found bad results sent share prices tumbling.

They warn a loss against France could have a similar effect when trading opens on Monday. If England lose, up to 25 points could be knocked off the FTSE 100.

"I wouldn't discount a knock-on effect in the City of London," said Dr Bill Gerrard of Leeds University Business School.

Dr Gerrard's team tracked shares in the 100 biggest UK companies on the day after 210 England football games between 1984 and the end of last year's World Cup. The more important the game, the bigger the effect, they found. For a win, they rose 0.3 per cent on average. A defeat led to a 0.4 per cent downturn. The day after Germany put England out of the 1990 World Cup on penalties, the stock market fell by one per cent. Some of the effect may come from people spending more money as Britain remains in a tournament.

If you are looking to buy shares, it might be worth supporting France. "The day after England are eliminated may be a good day to look for bargains in the stock market," said Dr Gerrard.

But supporters should take heart in the latest odds from William Hill, which place England as 8-15 favourites for Sunday's match.