Reprieve for Defence Secretary

From the moment David Kelly's death was confirmed, Geoff Hoon seemed the most likely figure to become the political fall guy.

Never the most popular or sure-footed of politicians, Hoon stood accused of failing in his "duty of care". But early leaks of Lord Hutton's report suggest the Defence Secretary has escaped the sort of damning criticism that most expected him to face.

The report said: "The decision by the Ministry of Defence to confirm Dr Kelly's name was not part of a covert strategy to leak his name but was based on the view that it would not be sensible to try to conceal the name."

There was a mild rebuke for the MoD - which was said to be "at fault and has to be criticised" for not informing Dr Kelly that his name had been confirmed. On the face of it, the evidence against Hoon and the MoD had seemed clear cut. Once Kelly had come forward to admit he might have been BBC reporter Andrew Gilligan's source, the scientist was told by his departmental superiors that there was no reason why his name should be made public.

Days later, however, the MoD used its notorious "question and answer" strategy which saw officials confirm Kelly's identity if journalists came up with his name. The scientist was informed his name was out in a 46-second mobile phone call from his "line manager" at the MoD, Bryan Wells.

Hoon supporters claim none of this was the Defence Secretary's personal responsibility - and point out that he was not even present-at the key Downing Street meeting during which the Q&A strategy was formulated.

Other tricky evidence for the Defence Secretary was the revelation that he overruled his most senior civil servant, Permanent Secretary Sir Kevin Tebbit, effectively forcing Kelly into a televised grilling by MPs.

Sir Kevin had recommended that Kelly be spared the ordeal. But this was countermanded by Hoon partly, and damningly, for "presentational" reasons.

This apparent willingness by Hoon to thrust Kelly into the spotlight also cropped up later in the inquiry, with Alastair Campbell's diary entry claiming it would "f*** Gilligan" if the scientist emerged as his source. Yet despite the evidence ranged against him, Hoon might still have won more support among MPs were it not for one of his least attractive traits - arrogance.

Within days of Kelly's death it was revealed that Hoon had spent a day as a VIP guest at the British Grand Prix. More recently, he embarked on what seemed a highrisk strategy of giving briefings on the entire Hutton process, a move which backfired when his private description of Kelly as "no martyr" leaked out.

The worst-case scenario for Hoon was for Lord Hutton to find him personally to blame, at least in part, for Kelly's death and to spell out his criticism in trenchant terms. But leaks suggest the peer has concluded that there were failings at the MoD - but that these were not principally the Defence Secretary's fault.

Even if he escapes the humiliation of immediate resignation, however, Hoon is unlikely to survive the next reshuffle as Tony Blair looks for a new broom to sweep through the MoD.