Population to soar in South-East

Commuter towns are set to see their populations soar by up to 60 per cent after a key report called on the Government to expand housebuilding plans dramatically for London and the South-East.

Ashford, Milton Keynes, Harlow and Luton have already been earmarked for growth under a plan from Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott to boost the number of homes in the region by 200,000.

Now they, and other towns like them around the capital, could see an additional 500,000 homes built under proposals submitted to the Government by Bank of England housing expert Kate Barker.

She was asked by the Treasury to look into ways of solving the housing shortage, which is particularly acute in the South-East.

She found that building new homes may be the principal way of stemming the tide of rising accommodation costs and house prices that may soon affect the economic prosperity of the region. Harlow could see its population double, with an extra 32,600 homes by 2016.

Most other commuter towns are likely to see increases - either in population or in the number of new homes - of between 40 and 60 per cent.

Ashford in Kent could see homes increase by 41 per cent, and Milton Keynes may be in line for a 56 per cent growth in population. The map shown here details what could happen across the region in the next 13 years, the time frame envisaged by both the Barker report and plans published by Mr Prescott.

It merges their findings with industry expectations of the homes that will be built if the housing market is left to its own devices. Population figures are being worked out on the basis of 2.35 people per new home.

Mr Prescott has said he will announce his new housing policy in the spring and is adamant that "we need to build sustainable communities not soulless housing estates".

But environmentalists fear current proposals will trigger unstoppable and unsustainable "urban sprawl", which will be a threat to "every market town in the South-East".

Nigel Kersey, London director of the Campaign to Protect Rural England, said: "If you want to see what damage it will do, just go to any part of the green belt around London. If this plan goes ahead, in 20 years' time, that green belt won't be there."

However, the Treasury report emphasises how rising house prices exclude more and more first-time buyers from getting on to the property ladder. Just over a third of households can now afford to buy their homes, compared with just under half 15 years ago.

Houses are being built so slowly that "at current rates of replacement a new house built today would need to last around 1,200 years", the report said.

Sue Ellenby, head of the London Housing Federation, said more affordable homes are needed across the capital. The federation is an umbrella group for London's housing associat ions and many key public sector workers live in its properties.

"We need to make sure new affordable homes are not segregated on housing estates as in the past, but form part of mixed communities supported by transport infrastructure, schools, health centres and other community facilities," she said.

The construction industry welcomed the housebuilding proposals but warned that the planning process would have to be speeded up.

"British housing is in crisis because the planning system has not allowed houses to be built," said Pierre Williams, spokesman for the House Builders' Federation. "The 70 per cent of people who live in their own homes must not be allowed to dictate whether the remaining 30 per cent can aspire to home ownership."

Mayor Ken Livingstone said: "With careful and efficient use of the land available, particularly the opportunities opening up in east London, I believe we can meet London's housing need without eating up any of our green spaces."

But Steve Norris, his Tory rival for mayor, warned that London's infrastructure might not take further strain. "Any significant increase in house-building would leave hospitals, schools and the transport system simply unable to cope," he said. "If they are serious about delivering this number of new homes, the Government is going to have to fund massive public-service improvements."