Poll predicts UKIP will dent Tory vote

The UK Independence Party is set to give Michael Howard a bloody nose in this week's Euroelections by snatching about a quarter of Tory supporters.

A new poll today predicted the Conservative vote would tumble from 36 per cent when William Hague "won" the European contest four years ago to only 26 per cent.

UKIP is also poised to leave Charles Kennedy's Liberal Democrats trailing in its wake, polling up to 21 per cent compared to 13 per cent, according to the YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph.

The extraordinary breakthrough by the small anti-EU party could see it win between 13 and 17 seats in the European Parliament, transforming it into a serious force at Brussels and Strasbourg.

Labour is virtually level pegging-with the Conservatives but anything short of a clear victory would be seen as a grievous blow for Mr Howard, who desperately needs a triumph to revive Tory spirits ahead of the general election expected next spring.

Tony Blair is braced for agonising losses in the local elections being held on the same day, dubbed Super Thursday. Depending on the outcome, he may bring forward a Cabinet reshuffle to stamp his authority on the party and drown out muttering about his leadership.

With thousands of seats up for grabs in 166 councils, Labour is expected to lose 300 or more and see its share of the vote plummet to below 30 per cent. Alarm bells were ringing in the heartlandareas of the North where Labour looked set to lose control of once-solid cities like Newcastle upon Tyne, Sheffield and Leeds.

The Liberal Democrats aim to take power in Newcastle for the first time and gain control of four smaller cities. The Conservatives are hoping for major gains to offset their likely disappointment in the Euro-elections, including taking power in Bradford, Swindon, Dudley and Coventry.

But the marathon day of elections is likely to produce a muddled outcome with no clear triumph for any party which could point to how voters would behave in a general election.

A weekend poll by ICM showed the Tories ahead in 202 marginal constituencies, on 33 per cent to Labour's 28 per cent. But the survey, for the News of the World, predicted Labour would win the general election by a 100-seat majority despite the figures.

Mr Blair admitted anger over the Iraq war was "a problem" for the Government. "It's always going to be difficult in midterm," he added.

Mr Howard today moved to recover ground with a speech accusing the Government of failing to secure a good deal for Britain in the negotiations for the planned EU constitution.

UKIP was highlighting a report from think-tank Civitas claiming Britain would be nearly ?20billion a year better off if it left the EU. The party was celebrating a series of highprofile endorsements, including one by former Tory minister Jonathan Aitken.