New Tory tactic: Tell voters we can't win

Michael Howard is being urged to launch a last-resort strategy of admitting the Conservatives are doomed to lose the next election because of "bias" in the voting system.

Senior shadow cabinet members want to publicise what they say is unfairness in the system. But it would mean Mr Howard abandoning his insistence that the party is fighting to win and admitting instead that Tony Blair could win another Commons majority of 100 or more seats.

The controversial new line follows dramatic academic findings from Bristol University that the Tories would still lose the election even if they polled between seven and 10 per cent more votes than Labour. In contrast, Labour could win with a landslide majority by being only a point or two ahead.

Now Tory figures, including co-chairman Lord Saatchi, are increasingly convinced that floating voters would be more willing to support Conservatives if they were seen as underdogs. Focus groups suggest even Labour voters feel " disillusioned" with Mr Blair and want him to win with a more modest majority. A senior election strategist admitted there was a split between the Howard's inner circle and other members of the shadow cabinet.

"Howard's people believe it is election suicide to admit you might not win. But the counterargument is that there are an awful lot of people who are lukewarm towards us but would get off their sofas to stop Blair getting another landslide.

"People do not realise how slanted the field is in Blair's favour." Professor Ron Johnston-of Bristol University, said: "If the 2001 election was re-run and the two main parties got

37.5 per cent each, you could see a Labour majority of 142, assuming a uniform swing."

Professor David Butler, of Nuffield College, Oxford, described the effect as "a spectacular bias in favour of Labour" since 1987. But he said the apparent bias could not be blamed on boundary changes alone. "The biggest causes are low turnouts in Labour-held seats and tactical voting to defeat the Conservatives."

Mr Howard was also struggling to contain a new bout of in-fighting after veteran MPs hit out at a whispering campaign against them. Senior backbenchers blamed the " Notting Hill set" of young Tories for reports that they were refusing to make way for new blood.