But, according to Investec, the risk is firmly on the downside for commodity prices and mining shares. As a result, it has downgraded BHP Billiton, 17½p off at 759p, from buy to hold, while cutting Anglo-Swiss group Xstrata, 20½p lower at 1073½p, from hold to sell. The broker also repeated its sell recommendation on Anglo American, unmoved on 7p higher at 1304p, with a 1300p target price. Only Rio Tinto, down 27p at 1808p, is worth holding on to, it says, with a 2090p target.