London Tories look to a future without Boris

Boris Johnson has fired the starting gun on a three-year race to be the next Tory candidate for City Hall.

The Mayor's revelation that he might not stand again, made in the Evening Standard, created shockwaves in Conservative circles.

It is so early in the electoral cycle that no clear camps have emerged in City Hall. Even the mechanism of a selection process is not in place. But already a clear picture has emerged of some of the likely candidates — and who would be the choice of Central Office.

Ultimately the decision on who could stand would be made by David Cameron — the man who ditched the last selection process and parachuted in Mr Johnson, and on current polling figures is likely to also be in Downing Street.

He would be presented with the choice of a City Hall insider, who would inevitably be close to Mr Johnson and associated with his regime, or finding a candidate to take on Labour in what would be a mid-term referendum on the Government. Already Conservative Central Office figures have formed a view that they would rather have a high-profile candidate who would energise the election, not a local government figure.

One name widely touted is youth worker Shaun Bailey, 37, who is currently Tory candidate for Hammersmith, and a rare commodity as a black Conservative who already has a profile.

A Tory source said: "There is no doubt that Shaun is young, gifted and black, which would make him very difficult for Labour to attack."

Today Mr Bailey told the Standard he was open to the idea.

"For now all my attention is on winning Hammersmith but if the worst came to the worst there [and I didn't win] then why not?" he said. "I'd have to discuss it with my association because they've put so much work into me but I'm sure they'd be behind me.

"I'm a Londoner born and bred, I've lived both sides of the river and I know the difficulties of growing up in this city, what problems kids are going through and how to help them."

But several other people in the London Tory scene would be certain to stand.

Within City Hall, Kit Malthouse, is emerging as the clear favourite. Regarded as highly capable, he is already the Mayor's deputy on the Metropolitan Police Authority.

He was closely involved in getting rid of Sir Ian Blair and is also the man who told Mr Johnson to back Sir Paul Stephenson as the new commissionerrather than Sir Hugh Orde.

His political fortunes may rest entirely with Sir Paul's ability at the head of the Yard.

Other options are the deputy leader of the Tories on the Assembly, James Cleverly, Assembly members Victoria Borwick and Andrew Boff, Conservative candidate for Richmond Park Zac Goldsmith and policy adviser Nick Boles.