London isn't getting any better

Londoners do not think Ken Livingstone has yet done much to tackle London's problems. Eighteen months after he became Mayor, those who think London is getting worse outnumber those who think conditions are improving by more than two to one.

A poll of almost 1,500 Londoners, completed in mid-December, also finds that:

Residents regard the city's two top problems as crime and the cost of housing, some way ahead of transport, which comes third.

Compared with a year ago, fewer people are impressed by London's main assets - its range of shops, job opportunities and nightlife

Eight out of 10 Londoners generally enjoy living here, but one in five would leave London if they could.

Few have much idea what the London Assembly does - and the number that do have contracted rather than grown during its first full year.

Despite the widespread feeling that conditions in London are deteriorating, Mr Livingstone enjoys a high personal reputation among those who have a view - but one in two Londoners have yet to make up their mind about him.

On balance, Londoners are optimistic rather than pessimistic about their own economic prospects.

Two out of three say the city enjoys good relations between its different ethnic and religious groups.

The rows over the future of the Underground have done nothing to dent Labour's popularity. The party's support now stands at 65 per cent - the highest in polling history.

Is London getting better under Ken Livingstone?

Not yet. The first poll, conducted in late 2000, showed what Londoners thought just as the Mayor and Assembly were getting down to work. It laid down benchmarks by which progress in future years could be judged. The latest survey shows that, 18 months into office, things are no better.

Asked about London as a city to live in, just 19 per cent say it is getting better, while 47 per cent say it is getting worse. The remaining 34 per cent have no view either way. These figures are almost exactly the same as last year.

That does not mean most Londoners are unhappy with life in the capital: 24 per cent say they are "very satisfied" with London as a city to live in; a further 51 per cent are "fairly satisfied". However, much the same numbers were found last year, and one in four - more than one million adults - is either "dissatisfied" (12 per cent) or "neither satisfied or dissatisfied" (11 per cent).

What do Londoners think is good about their city?

MORI showed people a list of 13 features of London life and asked them to choose the two or three best things about living in the capital. The top five were the same as a year earlier - but in each case, they attracted fewer enthusiasts this time round. The numbers saying "range of shops" was 43 per cent, down 11; "job opportunities" 34 per cent, down 10; "the mix of people who live here" 31 per cent, down eight; "nightlife (theatres, clubs, bars etc)" 26 per cent, down 16; "range of museums and art galleries" 26 per cent, down 10.

If London's facilities are thought to need improving, its overall self-image as an open and diverse city scores well. As many as 73 per cent agree that "London is a city that is tolerant of different people, such as gay and lesbian people"; only eight per cent disagree. On the statement "London is a city with good relations between different racial, ethnic and religious communities", 64 per cent agree and 21 per cent disagree.

One important positive sign is that most ethnic-minority Londoners-believe racial discrimination is on the decline, with 58 per cent of black Londoners, and 56 per cent of Asians in the capital, agreeing that "there is less discrimination on the basis of race or origin in London than three years ago". Just 29 per cent of black respondents and 21 per cent of Asian respondents disagree.

Big majorities also agree that London has "good cultural and leisure facilities" (82 per cent) and, despite its transport problems, that "London is a city that is easy to get around" (76 per cent).

What do Londoners think is bad about their city?

Asked to inspect MORI's 13-point list and choose the two or three worst things about living in London, 56 per cent say the cost of living, while 52 per cent say crime rates. These figures are little changed on a year earlier. Transport lags some way behind in third place but, at 35 per cent, the figure is up six points in a year. Fourth-worst feature of London life is its health service, on 22 per cent, much the same as before.

Separately, MORI tested a series of statements about London's overall condition. Only 19 per cent regard it as a "clean city", while 73 per cent disagree.

Worryingly, the proportion who strongly agree that "I would move out of London if I could" is up sharply in 12 months, from 14 to 20 per cent. This appears to be linked with soaring property prices - good for people who already own their own home, but bad for those trying to climb onto the property ladder: 71 per cent strongly agree that "housing and accommodation in London is too expensive" - up from 59 per cent a year earlier.

The fear of crime also seems to be a factor behind some people's wish to leave London. Only 50 per cent of Londoners feel safe walking around their own neighbourhood at night. Among men, 62 per cent feel safe - but only 39 per cent of women do. Of those aged 65 and over, just 29 per cent feel safe going out at night.

Plainly, the Mayor, Assembly and Metropolitan Police all need to persuade Londoners they are doing the right things to ensure streets are safe. Mr Livingstone's latest move, to demand full control of the Met, is part of his strategy to tackle a problem that many not only put at the top of their agendas, but also feel little or no progress has yet been made to solve.

How well has London survived fears of an economic downturn?

Not badly. MORI's survey was conducted during November and early December, after the shockwaves from the 11 September terrorist attacks had worked their way through the economic system.

A nationwide MORI/Times poll in late November detected widespread pessimism, with 43 per cent expecting Britain's economic condition to get worse over the next 12 months and only 14 per cent expecting it to improve - a net "optimism rating" of minus 29.

However, when MORI asked Londoners the same question about their city's economic prospects, the rating was far less disastrous - minus nine, with 20 per cent expecting things to pick up and 29 per cent expecting them to get worse.

Perhaps even more significantly, few Londoners seem deeply worried by their own family's prospects: 25 per cent expected them to get better, 57 per cent to stay much the same and only 10 per cent to get worse. This helps to explain why so many West End shops reported bumper Christmas sales: their customers felt that they, personally, would survive the economic squalls they heard about from the media.

How do Londoners view Ken Livingstone and the London Assembly?

The Mayor has more than twice as many fans as detractors: 35 per cent are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Mayor, while only 14 per cent are dissatisfied. But half of MORI's sample have yet to form a judgement. Still, Mr Livingstone can be content with a net rating of plus 21 (the difference between the numbers satisfied and dissatisfied). Most politicians would sell their grandmother for such a rating.

As for the Assembly, less than one third take sides (17 per cent satisfied, 12 per cent dissatisfied).

Seven out of 10 either don't know or say neither. These figures are underlined by MORI's finding that far fewer Londoners than a year ago know what the Assembly does. For example, only nine per cent know that it appoints members to the transport, police and fire authorities, compared with 17 per cent a year ago.

These figures dash hopes that the Assembly's work would become better known, and its functions better understood, as it got down to business. Instead it is the invisible arm of London government.

Have the rows over the Tube damaged Labour's standing in London?

Far from it. Asked how they would vote in a general election, 65 per cent said they would vote Labour - that's a record for any poll conducted in London, and an astonishing 18 points up on the 47 per cent the party scored in the capital last June. Nineteen per cent would vote Conservative (down 11); 12 per cent back the Liberal Democrats (down five) and four per cent other parties (down one).

It is extremely unlikely that a real election would produce a 46-point Labour lead. Labour would be unwise to count on a massive swing in its direction in the borough elections in just over three months' time. However, even if we aim off for sampling error and the habit of some polls in recent years to overstate Labour's support, these are clearly good figures for a government whose most visible London policy - public-private operation of the Tube network - has yet to enthuse the capital's commuters.