Lib-Dems slump in poll but Oldham voters’ grim mood could help Clegg

Liberal Democrat support has fallen to historic lows on the eve of the Coalition's first by-election test.

Nick Clegg's party is on seven per cent according to the latest YouGov tracker poll, with Labour on 41 and the Conservatives on 40. If reflected in tomorrow's Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, the Lib-Dems will be relegated to third place.

The contest triggered after Labour MP Phil Woolas was expelled from Parliament for lying has been billed as make-or-break for Mr Clegg. But signs on the ground suggest apathy may save his candidate from a crushing defeat.

On the run-down Huddersfield Road at the heart of the seat nicknamed "Old and Sad", there is no sign of the sort of by-election surge that inflicted bloody noses on Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. "It doesn't matter who gets in, they will do what they want anyway," said resident Netty Ashmore, 46.

Under the crumbling sign on the side of Mabel's fish and chip shop, Brian Mellor, 49, added: "This contest won't make parties come and sort our problems."

A few miles from the redbrick terraces of eastern Oldham, the constituency changes character. Urban deprivation and boarded-up shops are replaced with pretty villages on the edge of the Pennines, bridal boutiques and young mothers meeting in smart cafés. But the mood is much the same.

Debbie Hardie, landlady of the Granby Arms, said: "The Government has already been decided — we are not going to make any difference."

Talking to locals gives a sense that predictions in national polls of a Labour landslide have been overspun — with a low turnout and a grudging Labour victory seeming more likely.

It certainly lacks the exhilarating feel of the classic routs seen at Crewe & Nantwich or Ribble Valley.

Shopper Paul Neale, 45, said: "I don't feel like there's any point."

Anne Cook, 48, added: "The amount of waste created by the leaflets is absolutely ridiculous -the bins and recycling are overflowing with it."

A low turnout could play into Lib-Dem hands if their by-election machine can get enough supporters to the polling stations.

On the campaign trail Mr Clegg is bullish, telling the Evening Standard: "We are really in this contest."

And Lib-Dem candidate Elwyn Watkins concedes differential turnout could be key, saying: "The crucial thing in by-elections is who actually votes."

Labour are also focusing on getting voters out, declaring polls "notoriously unreliable". At the general election Mr Woolas got 31.9 per cent of votes, Mr Watkins 31.6 per cent, and Conservative Kashif Ali 26.4 per cent.