Labour hopefuls no match for Ken

Labour's two hopefuls in the race to be London's next Mayor are heading for defeat, according to an opinion poll today.

The London-wide survey, exclusively for the Evening Standard, finds that neither has a hope of giving Ken Livingstone a run for his money when the election comes.

One, former Sports Minister Tony Banks, would limp in a poor third behind the Tories, the poll by YouGov shows.

The other, current deputy mayor Nicky Gavron, would come fourth, behind both the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.

Nominations for the wouldbe challengers close at 5pm tomorrow. Barring a lastminute surprise, Mr Banks and Ms Gavron will go forward to a vote of London Labour Party members to decide which will challenge Mr Livingstone in two years.

However, asked which of the two Labour options would make the better candidate, the most popular response from voters surveyed was - neither of them.

The rejection of Labour's choice is the more striking because Mr Livingstone's popularity has waned and key services - above all traffic in the capital - are judged to have worsened rather than improved during his reign.

The satisfaction rating with the Mayor has dropped from plus four, in April, to minus five, with 31 per cent now satisfied and 36 per cent dissatisfied with the way he is doing the job.

One in three voters believes the Underground has become worse in the past two years, with just seven per cent seeing an improvement. The figures for the police are 30 per cent to 13 per cent, and 58 per cent say that driving conditions on London's roads have got worse, with only three per cent claiming an improvement. Only on the buses are the figures in Mr Livingstone's favour, with 32 per cent saying services have got better, double the number who believe they have worsened.

Mr Banks, 57, has a long track record as a member of the GLC, abolished by Margaret Thatcher, and as an MP since 1983. Asked how they would vote if he was the standard-bearer for Labour, the poll shows 39 per cent backing Mr Livingstone, 25 per cent for the Tory, expected to be former minister Steven Norris, and 15 per cent for Mr Banks, a whisker ahead of the likely Lib-Dem candidate, Susan Kramer.

Ms Gavron fares even worse. The poll gives Mr Livingstone 40 per cent, Mr Norris 27 per cent, Ms Kramer 13 per cent and Ms Gavron 12 per cent.

Asked which of the two possibles would make the better Labour candidate, 22 per cent opted for Mr Banks and 11 per cent for the less wellknown Ms Gavron. But 39 per cent replied that "neither would be any good" and 28 per cent said they had no opinion one way or the other.

The crushing verdict puts a heavy question mark over the decision by Mr Blair and Labour Chairman Charles Clarke two months ago not to let Mr Livingstone back into the party.

Labour's leadership has moved to put its alternative candidate in place early to avoid the error last time round, when Health Secretary Frank Dobson was selected only after months of delay with Mr Livingstone well dug-in.

Senior party sources said yesterday that the judgment on Mr Livingstone has yet to be made and that Labour's choice this time, to be selected within the next month, would have plenty of time to close the gap before the contest in 2004.

Others, however, said they doubted whether either Mr Banks or Ms Gavron could wipe out such a massive lead and suggested that any backlash against Mr Livingstone would be more likely to benefit the Conservatives and the Lib-Dems.

The Government's overall lead in London has also been eroded since last year's general election. But the Tories have yet to benefit.

Support for Labour across the capital now stands at 39 per cent, down eight per cent since the election, with the Conservatives at 32 per cent, up two, Lib-Dems up three to 21 per cent and others up three to eight per cent.