Key seats still at stake

The battle for marginal seats escalated today after polls revealed millions of people have still not decided how to vote.

An ICM survey today suggests that at least 108 key constituencies are still at stake as voters dither over who to back. More than a third of voters say they have yet to make up their minds.

But last-minute campaigning by Labour big guns appears to be paying off — with a surge of support for Tony Blair’s party among those certain-to vote. The Mori poll puts Labour a full 10 points ahead of the Tories with two days to go.

The three main parties were today making a last-minute pitch for the floating vote.

Lib-Dem leader Charles Kennedy will today mount an assault on Michael Howard’s back yard, taking his campaign to Folkestone and Hythe. Mr Howard has held the seat for the Tories since 1983. The challenge is part of the Liberal Democrat “decapitation” strategy to topple top Tories.

The uncertainty over marginals is highlighted by a Guardian/ICM study today. It suggests the fight is far tougher in key seats than national polls suggest, with a 2.5 per cent swing to the Conservatives in seats where Labour faces a strong Tory challenge. The ICM poll says Labour’s vote share in 108 key marginals is down from 47 per cent in 2001 to 41 per cent now.

Disaffected Labour voters in key constituencies such as Finchley and Golders Green are fuelling a sharp rise in the Liberal Democrat vote.

Labour election supremo Alan Milburn today claimed the race was “neck-and-neck” in such seats. In a final fundraising appeal to supporters, he asks for £50,000 to help win the battle.

Labour’s fear of the Lib-Dems saw Tony Blair turn his venom on them today with a claim that Mr Kennedy’s plans would signal to criminal gangs that Britain is soft on drugs.

He said: “Their ‘law and order’ manifesto promises that nobody caught with crack, heroin and all other hard drugs would be sent to prison. And it pledges to end prosecutions for those found growing cannabis. As Prime Minister, I find it astonishing that they are being put forward by a major political party.”

The ICM survey casts doubt over the Lib-Dem decapitation strategy. It suggests the Tories are mounting a strong defence of marginals, dashing Lib-Dem hopes of unseating front-benchers in seats such as shadow home secretary David Davis’s Haltemprice and Howden. The ICM survey puts him nine points ahead of his Lib-Dem challenger.

Today’s Mori/Financial Times poll puts Labour on 39 per cent, Tories on 29 per cent and Lib-Dems on 22 per cent.

If it is accurate, Thursday’s results will barely dent Labour’s huge majority — returning the party to power with 146 more seats than the others combined. The poll will be particularly dispiriting for the Tories, who normally do better in
surveys of those “certain to vote”.

A Mori poll at the end of last week put Labour on 36 per cent and the Tories at 33 per cent — a much narrower margin.