Ken's lead falls

Ken Livingstone is on course to win a second term as Mayor - but his leading margin has fallen dramatically since he rejoined the Labour Party.

In a significant change in fortunes, Mr Livingstone has slipped from a runaway 18-point lead in December to a mere nine-point advantage today. The exclusive YouGov poll for the Evening Standard puts him on 40 per cent, his lowest showing, while Tory Steve Norris is in second place at 31 per cent.

Simon Hughes, the Liberal Democrat candidate, comes third with 17 per cent - a figure which will dismay his supporters who were hoping for a big breakthrough by now.

The findings mean it is now a two-horse race for Mayor, with little chance of Mr Hughes elbowing the Tories aside in the battle for second place. It also means the ballot will go to round two, where second preference votes will be crucial.

The fall in Mr Livingstone's lead will fuel speculation he has been damaged by his decision to rejoin Labour and run as its official candidate rather than as an independent.

In December his support stood at 44 per cent but rose to 46 per cent in February. At the same time, Mr Norris's share rose from 26 per cent in December to 31 per cent in February. Mr Livingstone can take comfort from the finding that Mr Norris does not seem to have made progress since February.

His chief rival may be being held back by controversy over his business links, with twothirds saying he should resign from the board of rail maintenance firm Jarvis because of a clear conflict of interest.

Mr Hughes is in a much worse position than in December, down from 20 per cent. But his support reached its nadir in February when it hit 15 per cent and today's result is a two-point improvement.

There is now a small but possible chance Mr Livingstone could be defeated in the second round of voting, depending on how the second preference votes divide between him and Mr Norris. In the 2000 election, Mr Livingstone reaped 52 per cent of the second preference votes that were allocated between the pair but these included many of the 223,000 Labour voters who backed Frank Dobson.

The gap between the two frontrunners is even narrower among those who say they are certain to vote - with only five points separating them at 39 per cent over 34 per cent. The biggest shock in the London Assembly elections is the prospect of a breakthrough by the extremist-British National Party, which has reached the vital five per cent threshold needed to win an assembly seat.

The Tories are ahead in the assembly elections, by 35 per cent to Labour's 33 per cent, with the Lib-Dems on 18 per cent. YouGov questioned a sample of 1,356 Londoners online between 4 and 6 May.