Ken way out in front

Ken Livingstone is set for a landslide victory in the mayoral elections. A new poll today reveals that he will get 50 per cent of the votes on 10 June.

This is the first indication of public support for the Mayor since he was readmitted to the Labour Party last month.

It puts his Conservative rival Steve Norris on 29 per cent with Liberal Democrat challenger Simon Hughes on 18 per cent. Other candidates recorded only three per cent in total.

Yet the poll reveals huge disaffection, with fewer than one in three prepared to vote - a historic low. The ICM poll was carried out for Mind The Gap, a new independent campaign group that aims to boost participation in the election.

It shows that Mr Livingstone has improved marginally on an Evening Standard poll in December, which put him on 49 per cent. Mr Norris and Mr Hughes each picked up a couple of percentage points, probably as a result of former Labour candidate Nicky Gavron's removal from the race.

Turnout on polling day is now estimated at only 29 per cent - down five per cent on an already poor 34 per cent in the first mayoral elections in 2000.

James Morris, of Mind The Gap, predicted "a victory for Mayor Ken but a defeat for London's democracy".

The poll reveals that 79 per cent of Londoners think the elections are important, with 72 per cent believing a mayor can make a difference.

But Mr Morris said: "Londoners clearly don't want to get involved with party politics. Ken is set to win by default - holding on to his vote from last time and gaining Labour's."

He added that there was little evidence of the Tories gaining ground with Michael Howard as their new leader.

Mr Hughes was heading for defeat unless he could leapfrog Steve Norris into second place - allowing his second-preference votes to come into play. ICM interviewed-1,007 adults between 20 and 25 January, three weeks after Mr Livingstone rejoined Labour.

The poll reveals that transport and crime are the main issues of concern to Londoners, suggesting that an independent candidate offering radical solutions to these problems could perform well.

Mr Livingstone claimed the poll endorsed his four years in power. He said: "This poll suggests strong support for policies I have pursued as Mayor.

"I would urge all Londoners to vote in an election that will determine such key issues as the number of police in your neighbourhood and the future of our public-transport system." A spokeswoman for Mr Norris said he was "unfazed" by the poll's findings, adding: "At the last election Ken Livingstone was on 61 per cent at this stage but ended up with 39 per cent. We have four months to go. It's all to play for - but it's clearly a two-horse race."

Lib-Dem campaigns director Chris Rennard said the Tories were no nearer to defeating Mr Livingstone than last time, while the Lib-Dem share was up seven points. He added: "What this poll fails to reflect is that while Mr Norris has no chance of leapfrogging the current Mayor in the second round of voting, Simon does."