Ken set to win second term

Ken Livingstone is set to romp home to re-election as London's mayor next year - beating Tory rival Steve Norris by a margin of at least 18 per cent.

That is the verdict today of an exclusive poll for the Evening Standard.

It also shows that Labour will face a near wipe-out in the contest unless Mr Livingstone is allowed to rejoin the party.

The London-wide poll by YouGov puts support for Mr Livingstone - still officially independent - at 49 per cent. Backing for Mr Norris stands at 25 per cent with Lib-Dem Simon Hughes on 16 per cent.

Labour's chosen candidate, Nicky Gavron, scores a derisory five per cent, barely ahead of Green contender Darren Johnson.

However, Ms Gavron this week formally stood down to make way for Mr Livingstone, whose return is set to be confirmed next month, rapidly followed by his adoption as Labour candidate for the election next June.

Becoming Labour's standardbearer dents Mr Livingstone's support, which drops five points to 44 per cent.

This, though, still leaves him handsomely ahead. Most of the "defectors" go to the Lib-Dems, with the rating for Mr Norris up by just one percentage point.

The scale of the Livingstone lead highlights the problem facing the Tory challenger, with little more than six months to close the gap.

It is likely to intensify the pressure on Mr Norris to step down rapidly as boss of the transport company Jarvis. Some Tories have warned that such a move is essential if he is to have any hope of making headway.

The poll suggests Mr Blair was right to cut short Mr Livingstone's five-year "sentence" of exile from Labour, despite opposition from Gordon Brown, John Prescott, Charles Clarke and other Cabinet members.

Asked whether Labour was right to let him back in, voters were evenly divided with 26 per cent saying he should be readmitted and the same number saying he should not.

But the largest number - 48 per cent - said they did not know or did not care.

Opinion among Labour supporters is predictably more clearcut, with 51 per cent for his return, 14 per cent against, and 34 per cent saying they don't care or don't know.

Mr Blair's popularity with Londoners is well behind the Mayor's, as is that of the Government. The satisfaction rating for the way Mr Livingstone is doing his job is plus seven per cent, compared with minus 17 per cent for the Prime Minister. Asked how they would vote in a general election, 37 per cent back Labour, just ahead of the Tories on 36 per cent and the Lib-Dems on 23 per cent.

The figures mark a 10-point fall in Labour support in London since the last election in 2001, with the other two main parties gaining five points apiece.

But the consolation for Mr Blair is that because of how votes are concentrated in particular areas, Labour would still end up with 43 seats in the capital to the Conservatives' 25.