Kelly: 48% believe Blair lied

Tony Blair was today given an ominous thumbs-down by the voters over the Hutton Inquiry - with almost half believing he lied over his role in the exposure of weapons scientist David Kelly.

A new opinion poll by ICM for The Guardian found 48 per cent are convinced the Prime Minister was lying when he said he had not authorised the leaking of Dr Kelly's name to the media. Only one in three believe he was telling the truth.

Still worse for the Prime Minister, a big majority believe that if that verdict is established by Lord Hutton, Mr Blair should resign.

The figures are a warning shot just a week before the senior Law Lord is due to publish his long-awaited report.

But the poll suggests that if the Prime Minister or Downing Street are found "guilty" of some lesser offence than lying, the voters believe there is no reason he should stand down.

Mr Blair's personal rating as he heads into a critical week of his premiership stands at a dismal minus 15 points, with 54 per cent dissatisfied with his performance as Prime Minister compared with 39 per cent satisfied.

Tory leader Michael Howard scores a strong personal rating of plus 14 points. But as a consolation for No10, the personality ratings and the furore over Hutton and university top-up fees have made no dent in Labour's overall lead.

The latest figures for party support put Labour backing at 39 per cent - a point up on last month - with the Tories also one point up at 34 per cent. The victims are the Liberal Democrats, down two points to 20 per cent.

No10 is already preparing an intense survival campaign to be launched the moment the report is published. Mr Blair - along with the Kelly family, the BBC, its reporter Andrew Gilligan and the other main participants - will be sent Lord Hutton's findings 24 hours in advance.

His verdict is expected to cover charges that Downing Street and the Ministry of Defence deliberately arranged for Dr Kelly's name to emerge as the mole who briefed Mr Gilligan over reports alleging that Downing Street "sexed up" intelligence over Iraqi weapons.

It is also to judge whether the BBC's original report was wrong and whether the corporation thereafter failed properly to handle the problem.

The ICM poll shows 63 per cent saying that if the verdict shows the Prime Minister lied, he should go, with 29 per cent believing he should stay on regardless. Most at Westminster believe that the report, however scathing in other respects, will stop short of accusing the Prime Minister of a deliberate fabrication.

If that is the case, the survey finds 54 per cent saying the Prime Minister should stay in his job, with 37 per cent believing he still ought to depart.

On the broader issue of whether the war in Iraq was justified, the Prime Minister appears to be gaining ground. A clear majority, 53 per cent, now say that the conflict was right - a climb of six points since last November. Only 41 per cent continue to believe the war was wrong.