Jacqui Smith's revenge

There were a few knowing winks and nudges at Scotland Yard this week when adverts for the Metropolitan Commissioner's job appeared. The adverts have been keenly awaited because they are being seen as a significant element in the Cold War being waged across the Thames between City Hall and the Home Office.

The job ads were delayed by at least a week because the two sides could not agree on wording. Now the words are out, acute observers in police circles have been analysing them. The consensus is that Jacqui Smith has beaten Boris Johnson in the battle of the ads. Many will wonder why this matters. In fact, it matters a great deal because the Labour Home Secretary and the Conservative Mayor want different things from the man - or woman - who replaces Sir Ian Blair. Sir Ian bows out with a £400,000 pay-off and a £168,000 a year copper-bottomed pension, bruised and still smarting from the fact that Boris Johnson sacked him. Ms Smith believes the Conservative mayor pulled a political stroke in axeing a commissioner sympathetic to the government. Sir Ian certainly believes he is the victim of politics but he can hardly complain. He was the most political commissioner in living memory and his legacy is a Scotland Yard convulsed by politics.

Hence the fascination with the advertisements aimed at his successor. Senior officers believe they have been constructed to the order of Jacqui Smith and that Boris's attempt, through his deputy mayor for policing Kit Malthouse, to dictate to the Home Office has failed.

Two points in the advertisements indicate that Ms Smith intends to have a commissioner who suits her, not Boris. One is the focus on the commissioner's role as a national police leader, something that does not especially interest the regime at City Hall. The other may be more telling. The advertisement specifically states of the successful candidate: "He or she will demonstrate an outstanding track record in countering terrorism ..."

As one Scotland Yard insider pointed out, this line reads like a billet doux to Sir Hugh Orde, the Northern Ireland police chief who is seen as the Home Office's frontrunner. He has more terrorism experience than any of the other candidates and, in this field, is way ahead of Sir Paul Stephenson, Sir Ian Blair's deputy and Boris Johnson's choice.

There are other candidates, of course, but these two can be seen as frontrunners for the opposite sides in the battle for the yard. Sir Hugh, 50, is Chief Constable of the Northern Ireland Police Service, formerly the Royal Ulster Constabulary. He is perceived as a highly competent officer with a distinguished history at the Met. He is also seen as a man who understands the importance of a good relationship with the government of the day. Sir Hugh has a reputation for being cerebral with a sound grasp of history. He is a good strategist with a keen idea of how politics work. His success in Northern Ireland, where policing and politics are rarely far apart, is testament to that.

He is also unafraid of venturing into politics. Although his experience on terrorism is confined to Northern Ireland, he surprised some earlier this year when he stated that one day the authorities would have to talk to Al Qaeda. One can imagine government ministers murmuring appreciatively. He also proved helpful to the Government when he wrote an article arguing for a 42-day detention period for terror suspects

This was greatly appreciated by an embattled Ms Smith. But qualities she may find admirable - or even essential - may appear to Mr Johnson and Mr Malthouse as a disqualification for the job of running London's police force with its £3.5 billion budget and staff of more than 50,000. The Mayor and his deputy have made it quite clear they do not want another Labour supporter at the Yard. Mr Malthouse was scathing of Sir Ian Blair's closeness to New Labour. He abhorred the fact that Sir Ian uttered precisely the same politically correct shibboleths as ministers. Sir Ian supported Labour initiatives, championed identity cards and even lobbied MPs who were opposed to an extension of the time police could detain terror suspects. During the 2005 election he let police cars carry Vote Labour posters.

All of this appalled the Mayor and his team. Mr Johnson says he wants a Met that can deliver on the key problems facing London. Foremost is knife crime and violence among the young. Since January, 28 teenagers have been murdered in London and the view in City Hall is that while crime overall has come down, there has been insufficient focus on the epidemic of knife killings.

The Mayor wants a commissioner who will act like a chief executive officer, running the Yard on the instructions of a board, which in this case means the Metropolitan Police Authority, chaired by Boris himself. The Mayor does not want a strategist and he doesn't want a politician manqué. This was spelled out by Mr Malthouse in a recent debate on the role of the next Met chief.

He said: "The first thing would be to get someone pretty boring. It is almost easier to say what we do not want in a commissioner as to say what we do want. One of the key things for me certainly is it has to be someone who understands the often grey line between politics and policing. Sir Ian Blair strayed over that line too often."

So why do Mr Malthouse, and apparently the Mayor, favour Sir Paul Stephenson? Many say he is tainted by his close relationship to Sir Ian.

The answer is that Sir Paul is precisely the nuts-and-bolts man the Conservatives at City Hall are looking for. Mr Malthouse has praised his "laser-like focus", especially on reducing teenage crime. In Lancashire, Sir Paul was at the heart of a project that united police, council and other services in turning around a crime-blighted community.

He has impressed City Hall with his abilities as a manager. The Mayor's priority is value for money, his aides say, after eight years of profligacy under the previous regime. But the question, of course, is how far will Boris be able to dictate to the Home Secretary?

Ms Smith has already dismissed the Mayor's suggestion that a settling-down period be allowed at the Yard before a new chief takes over. And his suggestion that he and she alone should make the final choice was smartly rebuffed. She wrote to Boris: "I would make the decision on who to recommend to Her Majesty after interviewing one or more of the candidates."

This does not mean the Mayor's desire to have a meaningful say in the process will be ignored. Even if Ms Smith wanted to, she cannot leave Mr Johnson out of the selection procedure.

The decision on a short-list will be decided by a panel chaired by the Home Office permanent secretary Sir David Normington. The panel will also include the Director General of the Office for Security and Counter Terrorism, Charles Farr, two MPA members (possibly the Mayor and Mr Malthouse) and a fifth member, so far unnamed, who is not a Home Office or an MPA appointment. The HM Inspector of Constabulary, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, will act as a professional adviser. Their recommendations will go to Ms Smith. But under the Greater London Authority Act 1999 the Home Secretary must have "regard" to the recommendations of the MPA and the "representations" made by the Mayor. The only Met commissioner appointed under this legislation so far was Sir Ian Blair, whose selection was unanimous.

That support evaporated, of course, after a series of gaffes and miscalculations. Informed sources say Sir Ian believes he has been poorly treated. His resignation - forced on him by the Mayor - was accepted quickly and he was effectively cut loose by a government he felt he had supported loyally. Insult was added to injury when it emerged that, in a significant break from tradition, the Prime Minister had decided to deny him a peerage.

There is a view at the Yard that Sir Ian will have the last laugh. He is believed to be working on a valedictory speech which, it is suspected, will contain a stinging attack on those he believes betrayed him. That includes his former allies in Westminster. A senior officer said: "It's thought he wants to go out with a bang, rather than a whimper."

THE CONTENDERS...

Sir Paul Stephenson, 55

Currently Deputy Commissioner at the Met, he is a leading favourite to succeed Sir Ian Blair. The former chief constable of Lancashire has impressed with his straight talking. Has effectively run the Met in the last few years and has strong support among senior officers and Kit Malthouse, the Deputy Mayor for policing.

Sir Hugh Orde, 50

Charismatic and hugely able chief of Police Service of Northern Ireland. Started his career in the Met and has been favourite for the top job but recently committed himself to PSNI until 2010. However, friends say he could be persuaded to run. Seems unscathed after leaving his wife last year to set up home with woman with whom he had a child. Also has popular support at Met.

Bernard Hogan-Howe, 50

Known for a no nonsense, zero tolerance approach to crime reduction. The current Chief Constable at Merseyside has slashed crime in the region by a third in two years. He also has experience as a senior officer in the Met.

Mike Fuller, 49

The first black police chief in the UK when he became Chief Constable of Kent. A former Met high-flier with 25 years in the force, he set up and commanded Operation Trident, the squad tackling gun crime in the black community.

Sir Paul Scott-Lee, 54

Well respected West Midlands Chief Constable who announced recently he would not seek an extension of his contract when it expires next May. A former chief constable of Suffolk, he has also worked as a senior officer in Kent. Took up current post in 2002.

Jane Stichbury, 53

Highly thought-of woman chief who is a former chief constable of Dorset and now one of Her Majesty's Inspectors. Earlier this year she was the author of a report that attacked the amount of bureaucracy in the police and recommended the service should be more like the Army in terms of identifying leadership qualities. Has told friends she is keen to get back to policing the capital. During her time as chief in Dorset she introduced body armour for all officers.

AND THE WILD CARDS...

Julie Spence, 53

The straight-talking Chief Constable of Cambridgeshire.

Peter Neyroud, 49

Former chief constable of Thames Valley, now head of National Police Improvement Agency.

Stephen House, 50

Chief Constable of Strathclyde.

Ken Jones, 56

President of the Association of Chief Police Officers.