'It'll take 40 months to recover from 9/11'

YOU don't climb to the top of the greasy pole at the world's biggest aerospace company without being clever.

And Phil Condit, chairman and chief executive of Boeing, certainly has more than his fair share of brain cells. In fact, he is so clever that the president of a leading US airline said of him recently: 'Phil is so bright that he glows.'

The 60-year-old Scout leader is far too modest to acknowledge such extravagant praise in public. But close aides admit that Condit believes himself blessed 'at seeing around corners', a gift that is perhaps more useful in the airline business than walking on water.

But after the hammer blow of 11 September - the world's airlines lost $17bn (£12bn) last year - even Condit could be forgiven for not wanting to know what lies in store.

However, speaking in his office at the top of Boeing's new corporate headquarters in Chicago, Condit predicts how long it will take for air traffic to get back to pre-11September volumes as economic growth resumes. 'There will be a slow return of traffic; it will take 40 months to return to 9/11 levels,' he says.

This is a significant estimate from the head of America's biggest exporter - 82% of all planes in the air are made by Boeing.

Condit, a native of Berkeley, California, won his pilot's licence at the age of 18 after being taught to fly by his grandfather. He graduated from his home town university with a BA in mechanical engineering in 1963 and added a masters degree in aeronautical engineering from Princeton in 1965 before joining Boeing that year. The brilliant young engineer was put to work on plans for a huge supersonic plane designed to dwarf Concorde.

Condit added to his impressive list of qualifications with a masters degree in management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a doctorate in engineering science from the University of Tokyo - the first Westerner to earn such a degree. His work also earned him an honorary doctorate from Britain's Cranfield University.

When Condit joined Boeing, it was a tough time at the company with 100,000 workers being made redundant. Now, Condit is overseeing 30,000 redundancies at its huge manufacturing home base in Seattle. But this time Condit is hoping that the jobs cull will end there as the economy and air travel pick up.

One option Condit sees for the future is to make Boeing less dependent on civil aviation and expand other activities. He predicts that by 2003, Boeing will be making between 275 and 300 planes a year compared with 527 last year. The company, which made $3bn profit on $58bn turnover last year, will soon be balanced between defence, space and communication divisions and the previously dominant civil aviation side.

The far-sighted Condit has other 'visions' of the future, too. Low-cost operations such as Ryanair and easyJet will continue to grow while long-range carriers such as British Airways and American Airlines - which he diplomatically declines to mention by name - will struggle. And they will be forced to slash costs.

Referring to 11 September, Condit believes that it is impossible to make planes terrorist-proof. He says the way to deter air terrorism is simply 'to make sure that the wrong people do not get on board' in the first place. But Condit admits that this will be possible only if passengers 'submit to a degree of invasion of our privacy'.

Condit also believes that people prefer to fly from point to point rather than to a hub airport before switching to a smaller plane to their destination.

Perhaps the biggest challenge facing Boeing comes from European rival Airbus. It is building planes such as the A380, capable of carrying 555 people, and may outproduce the American giant next year. Many European commentators believe Condit's decision suddenly to announce the building of the Sonic Cruiser is a PR stunt to divert attention from his failure to beat Airbus over building a really big plane.

The futuristic Sonic Cruiser is the first new type of aircraft from Boeing since the 777 in the late Eighties, which was developed by a team led by Condit.

Boeing has been accused of building planes that nobody wanted. Not surprisingly, Condit denies the charge. 'We build what the customers want,' he says. 'Sometimes we suggest things and frequently they say, ''That's a stupid idea'' But if they want it and there is a good business case for it, we'll build it.'