Howard narrows Labour lead

Michael Howard has narrowed Tony Blair's election lead in the past few days despite Labour's onslaught on Tory tax and spend policies, an exclusive Evening Standard poll reveals today.

The MORI survey puts Labour four points in front among the 58 per cent who say they are certain to vote, down from a seven-point lead in the last MORI poll published at the weekend.

It shows Tony Blair is still heading for another landslide victory, with a projected Commons majority of over 100. But after six days in which Mr Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown combined for daily broadsides on their rivals' economic figures, Labour has failed to pull further ahead.

Labour is down one point to 39 per cent, with the Tories up two to 35 and the Liberal Democrats rising two points to 21 per cent.

In a further blow to Mr Blair and Mr Brown, the survey reveals their central campaign charge that the Conservatives would slash ?35 billion from public spending has flopped so far. Just a third of the electorate agree with Labour's claim. But another third reject the claim and the rest cannot make up their minds.

Only three in 10 of Labour's own supporters believe the party's key claim about Tory cuts is true.

There were reportedly tensions today at Labour HQ over a decision to change the campaign line from accusing the Tories of cuts to warning of the "mess" posed by increasing spending at the same time as cutting tax.

Some 36 per cent said they would be better off under a third Labour term in power compared with the 28 per cent who chose the Tories.

The figures come on the day Mr Blair publishes his last manifesto as Labour leader, an event billed as a turning point away from relentless attacks on the Conservatives to more positive campaigning.

It will disappoint Labour campaign managers who believed they had broken Tory defences on the all-important economic "risk" factor. Although the movements are small enough to be within the margin of error for opinion polls, they suggest Labour's sustained attack has yet to persuade the public.

Among other dramatic findings:

Over a third disagreed strongly.

Tory campaign managers will be relieved to find the public appear sceptical about Labour's claims that Oliver Letwin's spending plans do not add up.

The biggest blow to Mr Howard is the finding that more people think their families would prosper under Labour. This is usually-seen as a critical issue at the ballot box. But a third said there was nothing to choose between the parties or didn't know.

Women are 10 points more likely to answer "don't know" on this question, which could mean today's Labour pledges on childcare, education and the NHS make a difference. Among homeowners with mor tgages , Labour's lead on the issue is 37 per cent to 28.