High Street to get its Christmas wish

ANALYSTS are forecasting a Christmas sales boom in the High Street, despite the latest downbeat retail figures.

Improving consumer confidence and a 4.5 per cent rise in incomes in the past year are key factors, say City economists.

November's retail sales figures, due on Thursday from the British Retail Consortium, 'could be subdued', according to Peter Dixon of Commerzbank.

'They won't be great,' said John Shepperd of investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, 'but it would be wrong to look for a weak Christmas. People are leaving it later to buy gifts, and with Christmas on a Saturday, there is a full shopping week ahead of it.'

Tim Denison of retail analyst SPSL said: 'Consumers have finally launched their annual shopping spree. Christmas shopping is building momentum.'

However, the November inflation figure due on Tuesday might hint at a New Year hangover.

Trevor Williams of Lloyds TSB said that inflation could pick up as higher commodity prices, especiallyoil, start to bite. He said: 'A rise of 0.3 percentage points in November would take the Consumer Price Index to 1.6%.

'And it would take the Retail Prices Index [including mortgage repayments], which most people still regard as the real inflation measure, to 3.5%, which is pretty high.'