General Election to be best for bookies

CITY gamblers are poised to risk more than £10m by polling day on the result, voter turnout and seat tallies of the main parties at the coming General Election.

With the official contest likely to get under way early this week, bookies are hoping an eventful campaign and some volatile opinion polls will make this their busiestever UK election. The most interesting action is expected to be in spread betting and on betting exchanges such as Betfair, because - at least for the moment - fixedodds prices on the result are very lopsided, with Labour overwhelming favourites at 1/6.

David Buik, at spread bookmaker Cantor Index, said: 'I would not be surprised if by the end of the campaign punters have amassed bets with potential profits and losses of £10m.'

Betfair matched £18m of trades on last November's US Presidential election, mainly from British punters, and has so far matched £1.3m on the UK contest. It is quoting digital odds equivalent to 15/2 against a hung parliament but only 3/1 against a Labour majority of less than 60.

Surprisingly, given the conventional wisdom that this election will be marked by voter apathy, Betfair is quoting a turnout of 60% to 64% as favourite, at the equivalent of 3/1. This would mean more voters turning out than in 2001 when the figure was 59%.

Spread betting bookies such as Cantor Index and IG Index have been quoting prices on the number of seats each party is likely to win. The latest spread from Cantor for Labour seats is 350-354, with the Conservatives on 198-202 and the Liberal Democrats on 66-68.

Buik said: 'The spreads have stabilised in the last few days. Those punters who thought the Tories would get as many as 225 seats are already invested, having gone long at around 192.'