Footsie Fortunes

BOTH for its on and off-pitch dramas, the most famous and widely supported football club in the world is never out of the headlines for long.

But even the never-ending publicity concerning the loss of David Beckham and chief executive Peter Kenyon, hasn‘t stopped bid speculation for the Premiership plc.

This is hardly surprising, given the countless football clubs that have tried to copy Man Utd‘s business model, but failed to capture the elusive combination of league and commercial success.

Sir Alex Ferguson and the board have seen repeated interest from both Malcolm Glazer, owner of the Tampa Bay American Football team, and from Irish horse racing tycoons JP McManus and John Magnier.

Investors have benefited from this and an improved stock market, propelling the share price from below 100p to the current price of 231p.

So what does the future hold for the share price? From a technical viewpoint, Manchester United now rests within a key area and as most people will tell you, Man U always looks good in that position.

In 1998 the shares were propelled from 125p to 230p before sellers stepped in and forced the price back down to 160p. Over the next 12 months, Man U shares twice challenged the 230p mark, failing to break through on both occasions.

But when the break came in early 2000, shares became the target of frenzied buying, squeezing values to over 400p in a sudden spike. This celebration quickly gave way to commiseration, with a two-year period of crushing price falls, ending earlier this year with a battered share price of just 100p. Only once was there a pause during this price depreciation - at the 230p to 250p area, which again confirmed the importance of this price level.

Looking ahead, Manchester United shares again rest within this key price area. The break from this area will decide the next medium-term trend for the shares, probably with a substantial move in price.

On the upside, if shares close strongly above 240p and then 250p, expect more gains to follow with little resistance between there and 312p.

On the downside, failure to hold above the area between 228p and 230p will signal weakness to come, initially towards 215p and below that to 175p.

From a purely technical perspective, the move is more likely to be up. However, prudent traders will wait for confirmation of the direction before trading; after all, better to miss a little of the price move rather than try to judge the break-out direction and get it wrong.

Footise Fortunes is written by Simon Brown of Quantigma - a firm specialising in tools for technical analysis. It is regulated by the Financial Services Authority. For more, go to www.quantigma.com