Follow your instincts Gordon... and wait

From the Government's point of view, the argument in favour of an October election grows stronger with every test of public opinion. Only one obstacle still stands in the way of naming the day. Calling an election, without a compelling reason, would not be consistent with the Prime Minister's character.

He is admired because he exhibits solid virtues. Less talk and more action. Fewer promises and better results. Sincerity, rather than celebrity. His motto is "Getting on with the job" - a phrase he used six times during his BBC television interview with Andrew Marr yesterday.

He is the man who puts the national interest first - witness his willingness to stand up to trade union demands for inflationrisking pay deals. He should not risk that reputation. I want him to "get on with the job" for two more years - and win in 2009.

The success of "playing it straight" was illustrated in yesterday's interview, where he talked about the potential disasters of his first 100 days in Downing Street. He himself raised the subjects of the Glasgow suicide bombers, the foot-and-mouth outbreak, the floods and the near collapse of Northern Rock. He gladly talked about the crises - because by facing them head-on, the tragedies were averted.

All that being said, I do not pretend that the choice - whether October, November, next spring or beyond - will be easily made. Despite all the discussion at last week's Cabinet - itself a sign of change in style since the days of Blair's sofa government - only Gordon Brown himself can make the fateful decision. And, if he gets it wrong, the penalties will be monumental. The Labour party would hold him solely responsible for the end of its longest term in government. The obsessive Blairites, who still hide in the political undergrowth, would come out into the open and gleefully proclaim their own version of events. Tony, they would say, was a born winner and Gordon is a natural loser.

Defeat would mark the end of his political career. And, if it came this October, it would guarantee Brown's place in history as the prime minister whose term in office was the shortest in the last 200 years.

That, some friends will tell him, is another good reason for waiting. Shrewder judges will assure him of a view I hold myself: David Cameron is now past the point of no return, and will lose whenever the election comes. The decision about the election date is less about what is right for Labour than what is best for Britain.

Siren voices will remind Brown of 1978 - the autumn when Jim Callaghan waited too long and sacrificed the chance of victory which the polls suggested would be his. In that September, almost 30 years ago, I assembled in Downing Street with the rest of the Cabinet, expecting the Prime Minister to name the day.

I listened, in tense anticipation, as he read out a letter which he had sent, that morning, to the Queen. Paragraphs of economic analysis and foreign policy predictions preceded the sentence for which the whole Cabinet had been waiting to hear. "I have, therefore, decided not to ask Your Majesty to dissolve Parliament this autumn." A ripple of nervous laughter echoed round the Cabinet table.

There followed the winter of discontent and Margaret Thatcher's crushing victory in 1979. Labour paid the price for waiting too long.

Yet four years earlier, Ted Heath had suffered the penalty of calling an election too soon. His substantial majority in parliament made his appeal to the country as unnecessary as, in Conservative terms, it was disastrous. The 1974 election proved that governments can never choose a single issue on which to fight their campaign. Ted Heath wanted a vote on the miners. The voters wanted to express their opinion of the government in general, and the Prime Minister in particular.

Those are, inevitably, the issues on which the next election will be fought and won. There is no doubt that the Labour party in the country - active again, after going underground while Tony Blair was leader - is spoiling for a fight. But that is more the result of improved morale than of careful judgment. Gordon Brown's strength - which has produced his remarkable opinion poll lead - is his ability to be himself, not a character created to win elections. He should follow his instincts and carry on with the job.

Roy Hattersley's latest book, Borrowed Time: The Story of Britain Between the Wars, is published by Little Brown on 27 September.