Fear of flying will spread say experts

Whether or not the crash of an American Airlines Airbus A300 jet was the work of terrorists, or mechanical failure, it will intensify Americans' fear of travel and add to the uneasiness of a country starting to return to a normal life, experts say.

Sharon Manne, a counsellor to families of victims who died in the World Trade Center disaster, said: "This is a cue for people to validate what they are already feeling, that it is not safe to fly or travel.

"The crash will essentially justify fears that a repeat of 11 September is not improbable. Usually, a person's worst fear is for it to happen again. A commercial airliner crashing into a residential area comes very close."

Aviation executives say the Airbus wreck will have persistent effects on air travel. Morton Beyer, an airline consultant, thinks commercial airline traffic could fall by up to 10 per cent for the rest of this year and into early 2002.

That could set off a wave of bankruptcies in an airline industry already struggling and expected to lose around more than £3.4 billion. That is in contrast to the £1.7 billion profit last year.

Darryl Jenkins, head of the Aviation Institute at George Washington University, said: "I honestly believe we are going to have fewer airlines by the end of the year."

Shares of airlines and other travel companies fell on Wall Street as a shocked country watched on TV as fires and smoke roared through a residential neighbourhood - home to some of the firemen who fought the inferno at the World Trade Center.

At one point, AMR, the parent company of American Airlines, tumbled more than 14 per cent. Delta Airlines fell 10 per cent and Continental nine per cent. Airline industry experts predicted that, even if the crash was shown to be an accident and with no terrorist connection, Americans were becoming scared of stepping onto a plane.

Michael Friedman, an analyst for American Express, said: "It is no longer a matter of the price of a ticket. It's a matter of people feeling safe. If it was an accident, it's still awfully bad timing. It's going to be tough sledding in the industry for a very long time."

It is psychology that the airline experts think is the key to whether they can recover in the forseeable future. A spooked public, even if its fright is unwarranted, could create havoc in the industry.

ABC news ran a survey of reactions to the Airbus catastrophe and raised the question: "How many emotional blows can Americans endure? What is the tipping point?"

Psychologist Dr Joel Silverman told ABC: "Everybody only has so much emotional reserve. People with traumas in their past are at higher risk. Adding additional trauma is likely to make them worse. And, the more closely a traumatic event resembles the original trauma, the worse the distress is likely to be."

Yesterday's crash could be such an event, creating a group of people obsessed with safety and associating planes with danger and disaster.

Dr Silverman said: "This crash could be the final proof Americans need to confirm they are not safe. Since 11 September there has been an increase in the use of antidepressants, a run on gas masks, anxiety about the mail. People are feeling scared."

If the big airlines are heading for a financial debacle, there are greater fears for the future of general aviation - air taxi services, charter flights, flying schools, and hangars that cater to private pilots and corporate jets.

Most worrying for the airlines is if it should turn out that the Airbus crash was sabotage.

Extreme disenchantment over airport security would follow - especially on international flights - and that would change the rule that says passenger traffic only slumps for about a month after a crash.

If the public perception of flight is one of danger, bad times might last for a long, long time.