Euro vote 'will be next May Day'

Economists today predicted the date Britain would vote to ditch the pound - 1 May 2003 - as Tony Blair sent out his strongest signal he is ready to launch a campaign to join the euro.

The Prime Minister's declaration that the long-awaited decision on the five crucial tests on euromembership is close appeared to pave the way for a historic poll next year.

He told BBC2's Newsnight it would be a "betrayal" for Britain not to join a successful single currency and that such a move could be "overwhelmingly in this country's interests".

His fighting talk, which followed leaked details of a survey by his personal pollster Philip Gould claiming public opposition to the euro was softening, sparked a flurry of forecasting in the City.

Michael Hume, chief economist at Lehman Brothers, predicted 1 May for the euro vote, the same day as local elections across Britain and balloting for seats in the Scottish parliament and the Welsh assembly.

He said Britain's economy would need two years between a Yes vote in a referendum and joining the euro, while the Treasury assessment of the five economic tests had to be completed by June next year.

"If you bring that forward and allow a bit of breathing room, it seems to make sense to go on 1 May. We think it will be a close vote, but we think they will win and that the UK will join on 1 January 2005."

Westminster was alive with speculation about a referendum today in the wake of the second stage of Mr Blair's TV interview with Jeremy Paxman, running over three nights.

The position of Gordon Brown, seen up to now as the Cabinet's strongest eurosceptic, remains crucial. Those close to Mr Blair acknowledge he cannot move down the path of euro entry without the Chancellor's firm support. Mr Brown has maintained a jealous guardianship over the five tests, regularly slapping down Cabinet ministers who stray too far out of line.

Intriguingly, it was being reported today that Mr Blair could be attracted by moves backed by Britain and France to give the European Union a powerful new political voice by appointing an elected president on a five-yearly term.

The president, almost certainly a former Prime Minister, would be chosen by EU states' heads of government. The move is opposed by Germany and would be strongly resisted by the European Commission because it would challenge the supremacy of its unelected president, currently Romano Prodi of Italy. But the post could one day attract Mr Blair.

Blair and Paxman: Round Two
Have we passed the five tests?
Comment: Blair hopes stardust will persuade us