Election hope for the Tories

Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith was handed a glimmer of New Year hope today, with evidence that he is on course to make substantial gains in council elections in May.

A new survey suggests the Conservatives will score a series of victories in the contest for some 4,500 council seats in London and across England.

However, most of the successes look likely to be against Liberal Democrats and Independents, with little progress in the crucial battle with Labour.

The survey, carried out by the Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre at the University of Plymouth, covers almost 175,000 votes cast in 163 local by-elections across England since the last general election. The analysis shows the Tories have captured 30 seats and lost only seven, a net gain of 23.

Ten of the total gains, however, were against Independents, a soft target for the Conservatives, and another 15 came from Liberal Democrats.

Against Labour, the Conservatives took five and lost three, a net gain of just two.

The results, reported in today's Daily Telegraph, leave Mr Duncan Smith open to the humiliating charge that he is now locked in a tussle with the Liberal Democrats for the second place in politics.