Downbeat Blair warns on splits

A downbeat Tony Blair today warned that the effort to build a new constitution for Europe could collapse.

The Prime Minister emerged from the first round of talks at the most critical EU summit in a decade to warn that an increasingly bitter row over who should have the greatest voting strength when Europe grows to 25 member states could wreck the enterprise.

He said the two principal combatants, Germany and Poland, were still "a very long way apart," adding that it would be "very, very difficult" to reach a deal.

The row centres on Germany's claim for a bigger slice of the EU vote. Poland and Spain were among those holding out for a formula agreed three years ago giving them almost the same voting strength as Germany even though they have smaller populations.

Although the EU has a history of brinkmanship ending with a lastminute compromise, the gloom appeared genuine. Mr Blair's warning was echoed by Italy's prime minister and current EU president, Silvio Berlusconi, who said the row was "the obstacle that can block the whole agreement".

The Italians were this afternoon planning separate talks with the main players and with a full summit session on the issue not due to start until this evening, all sides were set for a long haul.

There also appeared to be little progress on the separate row over Britain's effort to maintain its right to veto decisions on tax, foreign-policy and defence. Mr Blair said: "It is important for us to get the right agreement, not simply any agreement."

Failure at Brussels would mean the effort to re-organise the EU would have to be tackled again next year. But all sides agreed it would make it more likely that one of the countries involved could scupper the plan permanently with a novote in a national referendum.

A breakfast meeting between Mr Blair, President Jacques Chirac and Chancellor Gerhard Schrˆder before the full summit failed to produce any sign of compromise.

Mr Blair was ready to act as peacemaker, with a proposal to put the decision on voting rights on hold until 2009, and allow the rest of the constitution to go ahead.

But there were fears that if the "Polish problem" could be solved, Mr Blair would be made to carry the blame for any summit failure.

There was some consolation as Britain, Germany and France finally reached a compromise to set up an EU defence force.

In a significant gain, and after two conversations with President Bush, the Prime Minister appeared to have won agreement from an initially suspicious United States. The plan will give the EU its own military planning unit for operations independent of Nato.

But French and German proposals for a separate organisation and HQ have been watered down.