Crunch time for IDS as challengers circle

A beleaguered Iain Duncan Smith today faced warnings to assert his authority as leader at next week's Tory party conference - or face the sack.

Conservatives fear the gathering in Blackpool will turn into a line-up of prospective challengers, amid profound alarm at Mr Duncan Smith's failure so far to make an impact among voters or in the polls.

Although most Tories believe he will stay on - not least because of the lack of any agreed successor - a growing number voice doubts.

Mr Duncan Smith faces some tough hurdles. A year ago ICM put Labour support at 39 per cent, followed by the Tories (34) and the Liberal Democrats (20). Now, Labour is at 35 per cent, with the Tories at 30 and the Lib-Dems at 28.

Last year the Conservative leader told his conference it was the week in which they began "the slow, hard road back to power". On these figures he is going the wrong way.

"If he was chief executive officer of a company underperforming like this, you wouldn't wait around. You'd get rid of him," said one senior MP. Already, Lord Heseltine has opined there is no way the Tories can win the next election. Lord Hurd's forthcoming memoirs are unlikely to be friendly - as foreign secretary he repeatedly clashed with Mr Duncan Smith, then a rebel over Europe.

At the four-day gathering, up to half a dozen potential heirs will be seeking to impress the rank and file who, under the rules, have the decisive vote in any leadership contest. Liam Fox, shadow health secretary and a standard-bearer of the Right, speaks on Monday.

Tuesday stars John Prescott's shadow, David Davis, who ran for the leadership last time and is certain to again. Shadow home secretary Oliver Letwin, the favourite of many on the Tory liberal wing, will also take the podium. Shadow chancellor Michael Howard, deputy leader Michael Ancram and trade and industry spokesman Tim Yeo, all in the frame, speak on Wednesday.

All are expected to declare public support for Mr Duncan Smith amid a belief that he will soldier on to the next general election, and near-certain defeat.

But senior Tories say privately that if there is another byelection disaster like Brent East last month, events could move much faster. "If that happens, all bets are off," said one former minister.