Crisis? What dollar crisis?

MUCH WILL be written in the next few days about the gathering of finance ministers in Boca Raton, Florida, to deal with the dollar collapse.

But looking at the present state of the global output one might ask, as James Callaghan once famously remarked in the face of a plunging pound: 'Crisis? What crisis?'

The latest manufacturing data from around the globe shows activity is at a high level. In a note just issued, broker JP Morgan Chase says the purchasing managers index 'signals boom conditions in global manufacturing with very rapid expansion in production, new orders and exports'. Conditions are at their best for a decade.

Here in Britain, the latest manufacturing data is a touch weaker than expected but the underlying picture is encouraging. New orders are at a four-year high and exports have improved, despite the exchange rate.

In America, the index is still rising and consistent with a 6% jump in growth. The key concern in the US is when the industrial boom will turn into job gains. No one will be watching this more closely than President Bush as the election season moves into full swing.

Despite the near 50% rise in the euro against the dollar, manufacturing in the eurozone is improving with the sector expanding for the fifth consecutive month. All this optimism about the real economy of making things puts the recent movement on the foreign exchanges in the shade.

Euroland finance ministers are lobbying the Bush Treasury for a more aggressive verbal campaign to halt the dollar's slide. Germany, France and Italy want the US to sign up to a statement at the G7 warning against excessive volatility on the foreign exchanges. Not surprisingly, the US is lukewarm.

John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, sees no reason to interfere in the currency markets at a time when a more competitive dollar is helping US industry. It was the Americans who wanted a formal statement at the last G7 in Dubai demanding a revaluation of Asian currencies. They met a stone wall from the Europeans.

The US got what it wanted anyway, with the dollar at a three-year low against the yen and standing close to its lowest-ever level against the euro.

Does it matter? Probably not, given the strength of the worldwide upturn. But that won't stop euroland complaining.

Dealmaker at bay

THE BIRTH of a single ITV should have been a time of wine and roses for Charles Allen. But despite a strong stock market welcome for the new broadcaster, chief executive Allen looks less secure than he should.

He may have hoped that the sacrifice of Michael Green of Carlton, originally designated as chairman of the single ITV, would be enough to satisfy frustrated shareholders.

But that does not seem to be the case for Anthony Bolton, of fund manager Fidelity, who is still disgruntled. The City has not forgotten the ITV Digital debacle and the £1bn dropped off shareholders' funds.

Allen is seeking to put the brightest complexion on events. But when questioned closely about his own future, all he was prepared to say was that it was his job to complete the merger and that is what he is doing.

However, he does have ideas. Even though ITV lacks its own digital platform, it is planning to press ahead with another channel, ITV3, which will go out on the BBC's Freeview. It also plans to beef up ITV's 24-hour news service. ITV2 has proved already to be the most popular Freeview channel.

But where Allen really scores is in his ability to deal with regulators. Among the biggest challenges for the new ITV will be reducing the outflows to government.

The BBC receives £2.7bn income from the licence fee. Commercial television pays the government £475m in licences each year and is required to produce hundreds of hours of public service broadcasting under its present remit.

Having negotiated ITV through the rocks of the competition regulators, Allen is seen as the person best able to adjust the single ITV's licence commitments, given the new situation in Britain's television market.

Indeed, if ITV shareholders have any hope of selling on the network to an overseas buyer such as Viacom, which owns CBS, Paramount and MTV, then reducing the regulatory costs and burdens is essential. So Allen will hope to hang on for the time being.

Whether he could be happy with Greg Dyke looking over his shoulder as a future potential chairman is questionable. But the City would almost certainly prefer a financial heavyweight rather than Dyke in the chairman's seat.