Credit crunch Britain - the winners and losers

The huge upheavals ripping through the financial markets have already left a trail of victims as banks have crashed and the Stock Market plunged.

There have been many losers, the most obvious being the unfathomably wealthy bankers and traders who have dominated the capital since Big Bang marked the birth of the modern City more than 20 years ago.

Thousands have already lost their jobs and tens of thousands more will be out of work when the dust has settled. Many have little chance of returning to the dealing floors and boardrooms.

Those who survive will see their bonuses cut to a fraction of the level seen during the boom years.
The myriad industries that feed on the billions of pounds bonuses pumped into the capital's economy every year - ranging from upmarket estate agents to professional dog walkers - should also get ready for much harder times.

But in every great crisis there are also those who do well. Some, such as insolvency practioners, predictably blossom like desert flowers while the economic storms are raging.

Others such as discount supermarkets and sellers of games consoles will benefit from the more austere "stay at home" economic climate.

But for untold numbers of restaurants, bars, sports clubs and shops across London the next few years will be a fight for survival. The great London party is well and truly over.

Entertainment and Leisure

Winners

Cheap forms of escapism always do well during hard times. It is no coincidence that summer cinema audiences were their highest since 1972 with the feel-good Abba musical Mamma Mia the biggest grossing blockbuster. As people spend more time at home, sales of computer games consoles have rocketed, having doubled in the past year from 8.8 million in September 2007 to 17.3 million in September 2008. Michael Rawlinson of the Entertainment & Leisure Software Publishers Association, said:"Our industry is proving to be remarkably recession-proof when even major banks are failing. The reason is very simple - games can offer terrific value for money." Book sales have also proved remarkably resilient.

Losers

Gym membership has proved one of the easiest household budget cuts as the credit crunch has taken hole. One recent study showed that 21 per cent of Britons have scrapped their gym memberships because it is an "expendable luxury". The average monthly cost for a major-brand gym last year was £46.98. Expensive restaurants and hotels are also starting to feel the pinch. Paula Fitzherbert, spokeswoman for the Maybourne Group, owner of Claridge's, The Connaught and The Berkeley hotels, said: "At the top end of the quality market business remains on track, but the guests are definitely being more discrete with less flashing the cash - it is less vintage Dom Perignon and more house champagne, more set menus than full a la carte.There is a definite move away from conspicuous consumption." At Spanish restaurant Fino the average spend has dropped from £51 to £44 in a year.

Home life

Winners

The precipitous drops in property values means that young first time buyers will eventually be winners, even if it does not feel like that yet. The market is predicted to fall by between 25 and 30 per cent in real terms from peak to trough. But for families, particularly those with bread winners in the City, these are immensely anxious times. Good news, of course, for stress clinics. One top clinic, the Capio Nightingale Hospital in Lisson Grove said enquiries are up by a third, mainly from stressed workers suffering from 'Square Mile Syndrome.' Divorce lawyers are also rushed off their feet.

Margaret Hatwood, an associate in the family department of law firm Thomas Eggar, said "some family law firms have never been busier" with the last tumultuous month dubbed "separation September."

Losers

Bankers who mortgaged themselves up the hilt on the expection of years of massive bonuses are having to drastically rethink their family finances. This has meant a demand for full-time nannies has slumped over the past month. This has pushed down pay central London rates from a typical £500 to £550 a week to £450 to £500, according to Julie Weir of Eden Nannies. The worst hit are those without professional qualifications. The best nannies are still in strong demand. It is also becoming much harder for maternity nurses and home helps to get work. Demand for "dog walkers" hired by time poor City bankers to take pets round the park has also fallen sharply.

Shopping

Winners

Everyone is trading down except those rich enough never to have to worry. Ocado says it has benefitted from the trend towards more nights at home. Its sales are up 20 per cent this year. Supermarkets generally are doing well as Marks & Spencer shoppers step down to Tesco or Asda and Tesco shoppers discover the joys of Aldi.

Halfords are doing well as ever more commuters save on petrol and do their health a favour by taking up cycling. The West End is still going well thanks to the strength of the Euro and its status as a favourite for oil enriched visitors from Russia and the Middle East. Selfridges department store reported waiting lists for many items in its "Wonder Room", a 19,000 sq ft space dedicated to luxury items and other precious gifts, including a Vertu phone costing £32,000, and a Swarovski crystal encrusted iPod made by the designer Bling-my-Thing and starting at £200. Other popular items include a Tag Heuer mobile phone with crocodile-skin backing costing £2,900.

Losers

London's high streets have not felt pain like this for thirty years. The list of retailers in trouble is long and ranges from JJB Sports to tailors Hardy Amies. Christmas is expected to be bleak and 2009 even worse. Marks & Spencer sales are down more than 6 per cent after it was slow to read the new mood. Areas expected to feel the pinch the worst are those most dependent on the "bonus dollar" such as Chelsea and those closest to the vast new Westfield shopping centre in Shepherd's Bush, including Hammersmith and Kensington High Street.