Countdown to Ken's big decision

Ken Livingstone has a month to make up his mind if he is to go ahead with the congestion charge. With only 10 days of the consultation period remaining, the Mayor is wading through submissions from hundreds of organisations.

Despite strong opposition it is highly likely that he will press ahead in an attempt to secure at least one major achievement in his first term as Mayor.

But if he does go ahead, he could face opposition in the courts. Some organisations, like Westminster council, have already told him that they oppose the charge in principle and are demanding a public inquiry.

Others support the idea but believe the system he has chosen is wrong and that the preparations he has made are inadequate.

But he is comforted by the fact that many more, infuriated by the appalling state of London's roads, support him or are at least willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. In the end their view is likely to prevail.

The battle is being fought on several-fronts. The Mayor promises his charge will unclog the roads in central London, but critics believe it will simultaneously make things worse in outer London.

Supporters like Susan Kramer have claimed there will be "summer holiday traffic levels" all year as motorists desert their cars and switch to public transport. But opponents insist his scheme will create "rat runs" on residential and minor roads as motorists seek ways to avoid the £5 charge.

The Mayor initially trumpeted the scheme's ability to reduce pollution in the capital. As a result, groups like Friends Of The Earth are among its supporters. But even the health benefits are unclear. The London Assembly's environment committee warns that any improvement in air quality will be negated by extra vehicles pumping out fumes in outlying boroughs.

The amount raised by congestion charging is another point of conflict. The Mayor originally estimated he would tap into an income stream of £200million a year but recent analysis suggests the figure could be nearer £130million. This may be increased by the income from fines levied against those who fail to pay the charge.

Mr Livingstone admits that compared to other charging schemes around the world, the London system will be relatively low-tech. He says a basic system is more likely to work but critics fear it could soon be ineffective and obsolete.

Deciding whether he will press ahead will be the Mayor's biggest decision to date. The GLA Act gave him specific powers to tackle gridlock and raise money in this way. Ministers have a veto, but few believe they would use it and risk more accusations that the much-heralded devolution in London is a sham.

The Tory boroughs represent a greater threat. Westminster council deputy leader Kit Malthouse accuses the Mayor of ignoring the fact that London is already "one of the most expensive places to live on the planet". Mr Malthouse says only a full-blown public inquiry can ascertain whether the charge is sound or "just another of Red Ken's mad experiments".

There is a "third way" for Mr Livingstone. Given his short timetable and the risks inherent in such a scheme, some still believe he could postpone the introduction of the charge until the other side of the 2004 election. He does need to show he has made an impact. But having achieved relatively little in his first term would be easier to explain than having made a mess of London's roads.

Millions are being spent on planning. The Mayor has sanctioned £60million for preparatory works and £16million for advertising. But the congestion charge remains a leap into the dark for Mr Livingstone and for London. We will soon know whether he has the nerve to take it.

LOW-TECH OPTION:

This relies on Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras to check registration numbers against a list of private and commercial vehicle owners who have paid the £5 daily charge.

The cameras would identify vehicles by their licence plates. Those who had not paid would be fined around £100, although culprits who paid the fine quickly would have the penalty reduced. Cameras would be installed around an inner circle of roads north and south of the Thames.

According to a model of the scheme released today, the designated area would be bounded by Marylebone Road, Euston Road, Pentonville Road, Tower Bridge, Elephant and Castle, Vauxhall Bridge and Hyde Park Corner. Motorists would be charged for crossing inside the boundary roads. The scheme would operate between 7am and 6.30pm and those who stray into the area have until midnight to pay at various centres or by phone.

The Mayor's own research indicates that the charge will dramatically-improve travelling times in the capital. At present more than 10 million "vehicle hours" are lost to congestion each year and there is a two minute delay for every kilometre travelled.

Computer modelling suggests that the number of hours lost will be reduced by between two and three million hours a year inside the central zone and between four and seven million in the area between the zone and London's orbital routes, the South and North Circular.

His supporters say traffic will decrease by 15 per cent and industry will save £2 million a week. Traffic outside the zone will also fall or at least show no increase, they say. Commuters who think they can drive to the edge of the zone and then park will quickly will find their plans thwarted by controlled parking.

HI-TECH OPTION:

A recent study by transport experts Roland Berger proposed proven "smart" satellite-based tracking - Vehicle Positioning System technology - using incar receivers handed free to around one million motorists.

This would cost less than installing the ANPR network. Each car's journey would be plotted automatically. The computer would "know" when a vehicle enters the charging zone and automatically debit a prepaid account.

The increased flexibility of this scheme means cordoned-off areas could be changed depending on circumstances, giving the capital an infinitely adaptable traffic system.

Roland Berger claims that by enforcing a varying scale of charges and by having two zones, Transport for London could generate an extra £830 million for public transport in the first 10 years above the £200 million per annum the current scheme will struggle to raise.

With three graduated zones and higher costs at the very centre, an extra £2.5 billion would be generated for Tube and buses, the company's research suggests.

What the councils say
Ken's friends and foes