Could public school toff be future leader?

They are young, gifted and back. After being banished to the margins under Iain Duncan Smith, the clutch of thirtysomething Tories who coalesced around William Hague and Michael Portillo have returned with a vengeance.

Now dubbed "the Notting Hill set" thanks to the fact their leading lights have homes in W11, the group of young MPs, columnists and Central Office aides are firmly back in favour under Michael Howard.

Virtually unknown outside the Westminster village, MPs such as David Cameron and George Osborne are hailed by their friends as the answer to New Labour's dominance. But as this week's backlash by veteran Tory MPs has shown, not everybody is convinced the next generation has what it takes to lead the party back into Downing Street.

Given that many of the younger set are from privileged backgrounds, it also raises a question not raised since Douglas Hurd was defeated by John Major for the Tory crown in 1990: can a "toff " ever lead the Tory party again? There is no doubt that Mr Cameron, the party's 37-year-old head of policy co-ordination, and Mr Osborne, a 33-year-old shadow economics minister, are rising stars. They are likely to be joined after the next election by Michael Gove, Assistant Editor of the Times and candidate for the safe seat of Surrey Heath; Ed Vaizey, speechwriter for Mr Howard and candidate for Wantage, and Nicholas Boles, director of Tory think tank Policy Exchange and candidate for Hove. At the grand old age of 40, Boris Johnson, the Spectator editor and MP for Henley, is practically the elder statesman of the group, even though he lives in Islington.

The Notting Hill set represents a new breed of Tory that is socially liberal while being dry on economics and Eurosceptic. But although they evangelise about the need for "inclusivity", they themselves appear remarkably exclusive. They work together, drink together, even go on holiday together. Worse still, their critics claim that despite the rhetoric, the image of the Notting Hill types is guaranteed to turn off the voters.

Old Etonians with upper class accents, red braces and pinstripes are the last thing the party needs to connect with 21st-century Britain, some MPs mutter.

Mr Johnson goes down a storm at Tory conference fringes, but his Dulux dog fringe is the main image the public have of him. His appearances on Have I Got News For You have obscured his political talents.

Labour MPs are delighted at the idea that he could ever be a contender for leader. "It would be a dream come true if Boris became Tory leader. The man is a joke," one minister said recently.

Mr Gove comes from a far from aristocratic background, but even his admirers wish he would sound less pompous, while Mr Osborne has upset some MPs with his brusque manner. Mr Cameron is one of the few to have toned down his Etonian past. Older MPs contrast the young turks with the shadow cabinet ministers likely to run for the leadership after Mr Howard steps down. Liam Fox, by virtue of being a Scot, appears classless, as do Andrew Lansley and Caroline Spelman. David Davis, born to a single mother on a council estate, comes across well in the media.

One problem may be that whereas New Labour was born out of the frustrations of Opposition, many of the young Tories have already had a taste of government. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had to struggle hard to reconnect their party with the media and the voters. In contrast, many of the Notting Hill types became advisers to Cabinet ministers in their twenties.

Perhaps the real lesson for the next generation of Tories should come from one of their heroes. A wealthy background hasn't harmed George Bush's political progress. Having reinvented himself as a folksy, down-to-earth type, the US president connects with millions of Americans.

They may mock Blair's estuary English, but a little Mondeo makeover may be what the Notting Hill set really needs.