Checking the divorceometer

You may have a marriage made in Heaven. But experts have come up with a down-to-earth mathematical formula for working out how likely you are to break up.

It identifies a number of danger points, such as having children before getting married or earning a small income, which they believe multiply the chances of living unhappily ever after.

Using data from failed marriages across the country, the National Centre for Health Statistics in the U.S. has published a table that predicts the chances of marital disaster.

Each danger point comes with a percentage risk above the average chance of divorce during the first ten years of marriage.

Statisticians admit there are obviously exceptions to the rule and a huge variety of other pressures have an effect on even the strongest matches. But they believe the percentage points are the closest thing we have to signposts to the divorce courts.

Those couples who add up an overall percentage total of more than 50 are said to be the most vulnerable.

Danger points such as marrying or leaving school under 18, having divorced parents or no religious affiliation only need to apply to one partner in the marriage.

The risk would be even higher if they applied to both, the statisticians said.

Some factors once considered a key element in divorce, such as a wife earning more than a husband, no longer apply, they said.

Divorce is less likely when one partner is financially dependent on the other, regardless of whether it is a man or woman.

In fact, the divorce risk increases when both partners earn about the same money. In Britain, four out of

ten marriages do not last. In America, five out of ten fail. However this rate is gradually falling because those marrying today are more highly educated and usually older than before.

This is not the first time scientists have tried to come up with a formula for calculating the chances of lasting marital happiness-Another technique - said to be an 'astonishingly accurate' way of spotting an impending divorce - analyses conversations between couples to see how well they relate to each other.

The test picks up underlying patterns of speech and behaviour that give strong advance warning of a doomed marriage, according to researchers. Couples were given a score on their ability to communicate. They got points for good signals including a positive tone of voice, smiles, affectionate gestures and jokes.

They received negative points for bad signals, such as rolling the eyes, criticism, coldness and mocking.