Chattering classes are deserting Labour

Labour's election supremo has admitted that the chattering classes are deserting the party, it emerged today.

According to his analysis, other groups that have turned against Labour since the Iraq war are women, young voters and Muslims.

Now the hunt is on for ways to win back support in the cappuccino bars of Islington and the delicatessens of Hampstead.

The Cabinet minister delivered his message to Labour's ruling national executive last week.

He told members that while the Tories remained weak, Labour needed to recover lost ground with groups which were once among its core voters.

One person present summarised Mr Milburn's message: "Labour now needs to win back women and Muslims after the

war, and to attract students, young people, Guardian/ Independent readers and supporters of international charities - the idealists who were inspired by Bono's conference speech."

In a further warning, Mr Milburn suggested protest votes could be cast in large numbers by people who saw a Labour victory as a foregone conclusion.

The source said he expressed fears "that Tory weakness would lead to voters using the election as a referendum on Tony Blair, rather than a choice between alternative governments". The invasion of Iraq, and the subsequent row over whether the Prime Minister lied about weapons of mass destruction, have done most harm to Labour's standing among Left-leaning professionals.

Other factors causing concern may include Home Secretary David Blunkett's hardline lawand-order policies, and the Government's slow progress in improving public services.

The Liberal Democrats under Charles Kennedy are best placed to benefit from a mass defection of Labour's middle class support. Those who have already switched from Labour to Lib-Dem include former newspaper editor Rosie Boycott, agony aunt Claire Rayner and leading lawyer Anthony Scrivener.

The Guardian has threatened to back the Lib-Dems at the next election. The front line of the new battle will be the seat of Islington South, a heartland of the chattering classes, where former culture secretary Chris Smith is standing down at the next election.

Barrister Emily Thornberry will defend Labour's 7,280 majority but Lib-Dem candidate Bridget Fox has high hopes.

With Labour widely expected to secure a third big victory at the next election, expected next year, the party may find it hard to generate the "fear factor" it needs to ensure supporters turn out at the polls. Strong results for UKIP and the Greens at this year's European elections suggested an increasing number of voters are ready to shun both main parties.

Of the last four by-elections in once-safe Labour seats, two - Brent East and Leicester South - were won by the Lib-Dems.