'Change or Tories will die out'

Alan Duncan waded into the Tory leadership battle today with a warning to his party - change or face oblivion.

The arch moderniser said it was "impossible to exaggerate" how little support the Conservatives command among under-35s while older supporters are dying out.

"We have no divine right to exist," he said in a keynote speech ahead of a full-blown leadership campaign. "There is no automatic return to government. Anyone who denies that risks condemning us to an ever-narrower base of support, which at the moment is primarily elderly, male and rural."

Transport spokesman Mr Duncan - the only openly gay Tory MP - joins an ever-growing list of would-be leaders including frontrunner-David Davis, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, David Willetts and Damian Green. Liam Fox and Tim Yeo are also set to launch bids in the next fortnight and there could be 12 candidates.

There is increasing speculation among MPs that the proposed change in leadership contest rules could collapse over the next few weeks. Many MPs are divided, with some saying party members should keep the vote on the final choice. Others say the current plans for members to nominate a candidate opens up the risk of a leader being elected who does not command grass roots support.

"There is a chance we will end up sticking with the same system if no one agrees," said one senior MP.

Mr Duncan delivered a coded criticism of Michael Howard's decision to force an eight-month long leadership contest by quitting the day after the election.

"In an ideal world we should be talking only of ideals and principles," he said. "Then, later on, perhaps of party rules and picking a new leader."

He chose the independent City of London School to set out his stall, calling for a "battle of ideas" to mirror the intellectual revival of the party under Margaret Thatcher in the Seventies.

Since then, he said, the rest of the country had changed - including the Labour Party - but not the Tories. "So much around us changed, without us adapting. We became totally out of touch."

A former supporter of Michael Portillo, the 48-year-old believes he is young and moderate enough to appeal to women, city voters and families.

Mr Duncan said Britain's problems were just as severe as in the Seventies, but better concealed. "Debt is massive, but debt is hidden," he said. "Credit card debt is perilously high, NHS trusts face growing deficits, and the shortfall in our pensions amounts to tens of billions."