Brown's big test over GDP figures

GORDON Brown faces his first big post-General Election test this week with figures expected to cast doubt on Treasury growth forecasts.

In his March Budget, the Chancellor predicted a rise in gross domestic product of between 3% and 3.5% this year.

But if, as expected, Wednesday's GDP figures for the first three months show growth of just 0.5%, Brown's forecast will look very optimistic.

'It was implausible from the word go,' said John Shepperd, analyst at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. 'The early estimate of 0.6% GDP growth in the first quarter of this year will, we think, be cut to at least 0.5% in the final figures on Wednesday, and possibly by more than that.'

Shepperd added: 'You are looking at retrenchment by the consumer and base rates that are quite high at 4.75%.' The consensus of City forecasts is for GDP to grow by just 2.5% this year.