Brown now holds the key to revival

Lurking in the undergrowth of yesterday's YouGov survey for the Sunday Times is a truly remarkable statistic. Asked who they trust more "to take the right decisions about the euro", more than three times as many people choose Gordon Brown than Tony Blair.

Were this a one-off observation, some people might dismiss it as a freak. In fact, it is simply the most startling of a sequence of poll findings. A month ago, Mr Brown was also well ahead, though by not quite so much. In late May an ICM/Guardian poll found that many more voters were satisfied with Mr Brown's performance as Chancellor than with Mr Blair's performance as Prime Minister.

One month before that, MORI's regular post-Budget poll found that Mr Brown's popularity climbed to a new peak; despite announcing higher taxes, he was the most widely admired Chancellor for a quarter of a century.

Something important is happening. Nine months ago, the conventional wisdom was that Mr Brown's star was waning. In the extraordinary days that followed 11 September, the Chancellor seemed (like wartime Chancellors in the past) to have no role other than to sign the cheques.

Besides, David Blunkett was winning plaudits in his new job as Home Secretary. Were a No 11 bus careering round Parliament Square to send Mr Blair to the great Cabinet in the sky, fashionable opinion held that Mr Blunkett and not Mr Brown would be elected in his place. I shared that view.

No longer. If a new tenant for 10 Downing Street were needed this week, there is little doubt that the Labour Party would, by acclaim, invite the Chancellor to move next door.

How come? Before essaying an answer, let us lob in one extra piece of polling evidence. The key reason why Mr Brown now commands higher ratings than Mr Blair is that voters from all parties think well of the Chancellor, while enthusiasm for Mr Blair is largely confined to Labour supporters.

Thus only 22 per cent of Tories told ICM last month that they were satisfied with Mr Blair as Prime Minister, but 57 per cent were happy with Mr Brown. A YouGov/Mail on Sunday poll about the perceived honesty of the two men uncovered much the same pattern. This is odd. It defies conventionalthinking. Right-of-centre voters have a higher regard for the Leftist Mr Brown than for his more centrist Downing Street neighbour. What is more, this spring's Budget, arguably the most Left-wing, overtly tax-raising Budget that British voters have ever faced in peacetime has added to, rather than subtracted from, his cross-party appeal.

I believe a number of factors have come together. The first is that, despite the recent economic slowdown, most people really have "never had it so good". Most homeowners (and they comprise almost three-quarters of all households) are enjoying cheap mortgages, rising property values, good job opportunities and negligible inflation.

Second, Mr Brown has kept well clear of all the recent stories of messy behaviour. His private office has had nothing to do with Black Rod. He has sucked up to no rich party donors. No ill-judged Treasury emails have come to light. He has become the Government's Mr Clean.

Third, his Budget set out a clear and, by the standards of our time, honest vision of his political strategy. He did not impose any more stealth taxes: his demand for higher National Insurance contributions could scarcely have been more in-our-face. He said plainly what he planned to do and why. Most of us were convinced.

Next month he is likely to win more plaudits when he unveils his spending plans for the next three years. Not only will he promise more money for education, law and order and fighting poverty at home and abroad (on top of the NHS increases he has already announced); he will also draw these things together into a clear narrative about reforming British society.

Things could go wrong. I doubt whether Mr Blair will vacate his job before the next election. By then the economy may have turned dour and Mr Brown's ratings tumbled back down. For the time being, though, the Chancellor rides high, with the public and with his party. However much his popularity may grate with some in Number 10, he holds the key to the Government's revival. And that makes him more powerful than ever.