Brown eyes cigs, homes, banks

EXPECT a tough, tax-raising Budget, with Chancellor Gordon Brown likely to clobber smokers, and a big risk of extra burdens on property buyers and the highly profitable High Street banks.

That is the message from Britain's spread-betting bookmakers as they attempt to lure punters into the annual flurry of Budget gambling.

In keeping with the current anti-binge-drinking mood, City Index is quoting a spread of 40p-44p extra tax as a result of tomorrow's Budget for someone who drinks 10 pints of beer, smokes two packets of cigarettes, drinks one bottle of vodka and one bottle of wine.

David Buik at Cantor Index said his firm's quote of 10p-14p extra tax on a packet of cigarettes has attracted 'down-bets' from clients who think Cantor has been overzealous with its estimate.

Nigel Seeley, at IG Index, said IG is quoting 67-72 for the number of times Brown mentions the word 'tax'. 'In previous years it has been as low as 40 and as high as 120. It is the most interesting and volatile Budget market,' Seeley said.

Last year Brown spoke for 59 minutes. Bookmakers are expecting almost exactly the same tomorrow, Cantor Index quoting 54-57 minutes and both IG and City 57-60 minutes.

Cantor is also quoting 0.3% to 0.7% for the rate of a one-off windfall tax on banks' pre-tax profits, and an increase in the top rate of stamp duty on property purchase from 4% to between 4.5% and 4.9%.

For the first time, a bookie is quoting a spread on the length of the reply by the Opposition leader. Financial Spreads has Michael Howard's speech on a spread of 22-25 minutes.