Bleak Christmas on the cards

CHRISTMAS may be coming and the geese getting fat - just don't expect a seasonal greetings card dropping on your mat. Not if you live in America anyway. Reliant on a Yuletide surge to boost profits - in the US, 60% of their £5bn revenue came at Christmas last year - card makers are bracing for a downturn.

With anthrax scares creating near-hysteria, the greatest Christmas tradition of all, next to trees and turkeys, looks like falling victim to the terrorists.

Big business is rethinking its scatter-gun policy of sending out thousands of cards to customers and potential clients in favour of e-mailed seasonal greetings. Diane Brainerd in New York, who runs an investor relations company, cancelled her annual order of 300 cards last week. 'You send out cards to reach and touch people. I get the impression these days that people don't want to be touched by the mail,' she said.

Hallmark Cards and American Greetings Corp, giants of the trade, are remaining upbeat in the face of analysts warning of a card famine. They are hoping that bad news might work the other way - that in fact more people will mail Christmas cards in the wake of the disasters. But some outlets are already reporting bad news. Jackie Hawkins, owner of Yawa Books and Gifts in Washington DC, said: 'Business on cards is 20% down on this time last year.'

Where big companies used to send greetings cards in an envelope, many are switching to a simple postcard - something that cannot contain hidden powder. Sunny Bates, a corporate headhunter from New York, has saved £3,600 by placing an order for 8,000 Christmas postcards for her clients.

The big winner will be e-mailed cards. Hallmark sold 10m last year and American Greetings 350,000 in the days after the 11 September disaster. If people are going to send traditional cards, the US postal service says they must have a return address printed on the back.

The panic is good news for manufacturers of transparent vellum envelopes. Sales are up 50% on last year as corporations large and small seek to show their customers exactly what lies within an envelope before they have to open it.