Blair's deputy holds fort in political fight

Sir Paul Stephenson, second in command at Scotland Yard, is increasingly being seen as the most likely candidate for commissioner.

The 55-year-old is highly regarded by the new Tory administration at City Hall, while he has also won respect within the ranks at Scotland Yard.

A former chief constable of Lancashire, he was appointed deputy commissioner at the Met three years ago.

Initially his Northern roots did not win him many friends but his straight talking, particularly during the alleged airlines terror plot in 2006, proved popular.

He recently made headlines in the race row involving assistant commissioner Tariq Ghaffur when he told him to "shut up and get on with his job" However, some argue that he is too closely aligned to the former commissioner, though supporters point out he is effectively an outsider, coming to the Met from an another force three years ago.

They also say he has effectively run the Met in the last few years and so has been in charge at a time when crime has fallen dramatically in London. If he is the choice of Mayor Boris Johnson for the post, it will be the first time that a Conservative mayor has recommended a candidate to a Labour Home Secretary.

The rules states that the candidate is chosen by a panel of members from the Metropolitan Police Authority, chaired by Mr Johnson.

Any future panel is expected to be stacked with supporters of the Mayor so the recommendation will be the highly personal choice of Mr Johnson and his deputy for policing, Kit Malthouse.

However, the appointment of the commissioner continues to be a royal one made following a recommendation by the Home Secretary.

Under legislation passed in 1996, the Home Secretary makes the final decision, though he or she must take account of the MPA and the Mayor's recommendations. The decision by the Mayor to sack Sir Ian without seeking the approval of the Home Secretary means the process is likely to become mired in party politics.

The Mayor is understood to have told friends that no permanent successor needs to be appointed until the Conservatives take over Downing Street after the general election.

The Home Secretary is understood to have told the Mayor's office that this is not possible and an appointment has to be made.

One police source raised the question of why the Tory administration at City Hall wanted to wait so long if Sir Paul Stephenson was their choice for the job.

"Why not just appoint him now, he would be a popular choice, it raises the question of whether they have another candidate in mind," he added.