Blair prepares for backlash

Labour today launched a desperate last push to save Tony Blair from two by-election defeats in the wake of the Butler report.

Confidence was growing among party managers that the Prime Minister could escape humiliation in at least one of the two contests, billed as the first public verdict on the Iraq dossier affair.

But the battles in Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill, both supposedly safe Labour seats, were described as too close to call. To lose both would be a serious embarrassment for Labour. Voting began as the Cabinet gathered at No 10 to discuss the damage inflicted by Lord Butler's findings that intelligence about Iraq was "flawed" and oversold in the government dossier on Saddam Hussein's alleged weapons.

Some senior ministers are privately demanding Mr Blair change his "sofa style" of governing in the wake of Butler's findings that the Cabinet was left out of discussions before the invasion of Iraq. The inquiry criticised decision-making taken in No 10 without proper Cabinet debate and said ministers were not even shown papers before meetings.

Media reaction to the Butler report was almost universal astonishment that the inquiry refused to blame anyone, despite concluding that the case for war was "seriously flawed" and the intelligence taken to its "outer limits" in the No 10

dossier. Downing Street aides were said to be furious at Lord Butler's decision to publish his findings on the eve of today's by-elections, fearing that a strong antiwar campaign in both seats could tilt the balance against Labour.

The Liberal Democrats were hoping to overturn a 13,000 majority In Leicester South, in a rerun of its triumph in Brent East last year. The party swept the board in council elections last year but the opposition votes in the by-election were being split three ways between them, the Conservatives and the Left-wing Respect Party.

Conservative officials were conceding defeat in Birmingham which has become a two-horse race between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. But a senior aide to Michael Howard insisted they could win Leicester South, which was held by the party 21 years ago. "It is a three-way split in Leicester and the anti-war parties are eating into Labour and the Liberals, so we can come through the middle," he said.

One Cabinet minister played down the impact of Government defeats and admitted: "Liberal Democrats win byelections - that's what they are good at. It never changes the result of the general election."

The Leicester South by-election was triggered by the death of the long-serving MP Jim Marshall, while the Birmingham Hodge Hill contest was sparked when MP Terry Davis stood down.