Blair likely to welcome result

When George Bush repeatedly cited Tony Blair during the presidential TV debates, there was a collective cringe among some of the British Cabinet.

The president was on the ropes, with John Kerry hammering away at his lack of world support, but the mere mention of his British ally acted as a magic shield. "I talk to Tony Blair all the time, I talk to Silvio Berlusconi," he said. "They're not going to follow an American president who says 'follow me into a mistake'."

But Downing Street was unrepentant. Mr Blair is not dissembling when he says it is part of his job description to maintain a "special relationship" with Washington - no matter who is leader. The Prime Minister believes Mr Bush is one of the few world leaders who "gets it" about the war on terror. Mr Blair can get on with trying to build a fresh start in Iraq knowing he won't have to spend weeks, if not months, getting close to a new president.

But the downside of a Bush victory may well outweigh any of the positives. The biggest danger is that a Bush victory will serve as a constant reminder of all Blair's problems over Iraq, WMD and trust.

It may not lose Labour the election, but it could be the difference between a big majority and a narrow one.