Blair fears election backlash

Tony Blair is today reeling from the collapse of the Spanish government in the wake of the Madrid bombings.

Ministers are coming to terms with the grotesque possibility that al Qaeda terrorists managed to engineer the downfall of Mr Blair's key ally in the Iraq war.

They are asking whether the terror network could mount a similar atrocity in Britain in an attempt to sway the British general election, expected in just over a year.

The dangers for Mr Blair were underlined by a new poll today which says Labour support among Muslims in Britain has plunged by half since the last election.

Only 38 per cent of Muslims back Mr Blair, compared with 75 per cent before the last election, says the ICM poll in the Guardian.

In a hammer blow for the US-led coalition, Spain's conservatives collapsed unexpectedlyin the aftermath of the train bombings-which killed 200 people. A high voter turnout seemed to suggest a backlash against former premier José Maria Aznar's backing for America in the war in Iraq.

There was also anger that his government blamed the tragedy on Basque separatists ETA, only to be contradicted by a chilling al Qaeda video tape on polling day.

New prime minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is a fierce critic of the war and has pledged to bring home 1,300 Spanish troops serving in Iraq when their term of duty

ends in July.

In a victory speech last night Mr Zapatero said: "My immediate priority will be to fight all forms of terrorism."

Commons leader Peter Hain predicted Britain's relations with Spain would not be affected. "Tony Blair will want to work with him as the leader of Spain just as closely as he has with José Maria Aznar," he said.

The exact nature of the new government was not immediately clear because Mr Zapatero failed to win an outright majority and was horse-trading with smaller parties. His socialists won about 43 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Mr Aznar.

Black ribbons hung from polling booths and on voters' lapels yesterday. Mr Aznar and his wife were booed and jostled as they arrived to cast their votes. As he tried to address supporters, he was drowned out by cries of " manipulators", "liars" and "peace".

Until last week's bombings he had been expected to win another term in office. His government backed the USled invasion of Iraq last year despite polls showing 90 per cent opposition from the Spanish public.

Mr Zapatero pledged to call together all Spain's political parties to form a common front against terrorism, including the ousted conservatives.

He began his victory speech to hundreds of cheering supporters gathered in the narrow streets outside party headquarters in Madrid by calling a minute's silence for the bombing victims-The election saw the biggest swing - 10 per cent - since democracy returned to Spain nearly a quarter of a century ago.

The socialists with 42.64 per cent of the vote will have 164 seats in the 350-seat parliament. The Popular Party will have 148 seats.

Analysts believed that had it been confirmed that ETA was behind the bombings, the result would have almost certainly been the reverse.

The socialists' victory came only hours after it was revealed that one of five men - three Moroccans and two Indians - being questioned by antiterrorist police and intelligence officers in connection with last Thursday's massacre had already been linked with al Qaeda by Spain's top criminal investigator.

Moroccan Jamal Zougan, one of those arrested at the weekend, was named in September by Judge Baltasar Garzon when he indicted al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden and 34 other alleged members of the terror network for trial for the 11 September 2001 attacks in America.